Sheffield United at Newcastle Odds
| Sheffield United odds | +135 (BET NOW) |
| Newcastle odds | +230 (BET NOW) |
| Draw odds | +210 (BET NOW) |
| Over/Under | 2 (-124/+100) (BET NOW) |
| Time | Sunday, 9 a.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
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The Premier League rolls on Sunday as Sheffield United heads to St. James' Park to take on Newcastle.
Sheffield United were robbed of a win against Aston Villa on Sunday when a clear goal was not given despite the presence of goal-line technology and VAR.
The good news for the Blades is that Manchester United drew with Tottenham on Friday, leaving the door open for Sheffield United to slide into fifth place with a win over Newcastle.
The Magpies don't find themselves in relegation trouble yet but a couple of bad results could push them close into a real scrap for survival.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Newcastle
Even though Newcastle are in 14th place you could make the argument that they are the worst team in the Premier League this season. The Magpies rank dead last in expected points and expected goal differential in 2019-20:
- Actual Points: 35
- Expected Points: 21.88
- Actual Goal Differential: -16
- Expected Goal Differential: -26.41
Home-field advantage is muted without fans but the Magpies have posted decent results at St. James' Park this season. Newcastle has earned 21 points and have an even goal differential in 14 home matches this season.
However, those results are a bit fraudulent as Newcastle has a -10.5 xG differential at home this season. Regression is coming for Newcastle and I think they will have issues with Sheffield United on Sunday.
Sheffield United
Sheffield United's defense did not skip a beat in their return match against Aston Villa as the Blades notched their 12th clean sheet of the season. Sheffield United have been a standout defensive team this season only allowing 1.31 xG per match, putting them on par with teams like Leicester City and Everton.
That stellar defense comes in handy for the Blades as they score generate less under 1.0 xG per match on the road this season.
The Blades were on a great run of form before the break and now have earned 17 of a possible 27 points over their last nine matches and although they may struggle to score, I think they'll create enough quality chances against an overrated Newcastle side.
Analysis
This handicap has much more to do with Newcastle being overrated than anything else. In fact, my model makes Sheffield a bigger favorite than the market:
- Newcastle projected odds: +377 (20.96% win probability)
- Sheffield United projected odds: -112 (52.88%)
- Draw projected odds: +282 (26.17%)
- Newcastle projected xG: 0.93
- Sheffield United projected xG: 1.49
I think there is good value on Sheffield United grabbing all three points against a bad Newcastle side.
