Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid Odds
| Real Madrid Odds | -115 |
| Atletico Madrid Odds | +310 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-103 / -120) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-122 / -106) |
| Odds via BetRivers.. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
We have an outstanding matchup in the Copa Del Rey on Thursday with another iteration of the Madrid Derby, as Real Madrid take on Atletico Madrid.
Real Madrid are starting to fall further and further behind Barcelona in the La Liga title race and they were even beaten by Barcelona 3-1 in the Spanish Super Cup. Carlo Ancelotti's team is in the middle of a very difficult run of matches.
They just beat Villarreal 3-2 to get to the Copa Del Rey quarterfinals a week ago, had to travel to Bilbao on the weekend and then after this match have a very tricky encounter with Real Sociedad on Sunday.
Times are tough at Atletico Madrid as well. Diego Simeone's side is out of the Champions League and is now fighting to stay in the top four in La Liga. The last time they played Real Madrid, things did not go according to plan, as they were beaten 2-1 at home. This is a good opportunity to get some revenge against their inner-city rivals and turn around what is looking like a lost season.
Real Madrid Struggling to Maintain Defensive Structure
Carlo Ancelotti's team has rebounded from a bad run of form that saw them lose to Villarreal in La Liga 2-1, need penalties to beat Valencia in the Spanish Super Cup and then lose to Barcelona in the final. They got revenge against Villarreal and then beat a very good Bilbao team over the weekend, but things are not fixed.
The problems that exist at Real Madrid are quite simple. They are not an elite defensive team, but rather far from it. Real Madrid are sixth in La Liga in expected goals allowed (xGA) and 11th in passes allowed into the penalty area.
They are not providing much resistance in terms of their counterpressing or in transition defense. Real Madrid are 12th in PPDA, ninth in progressive passes + dribbles allowed, 16th in ball recoveries and are allowing an 84.38% opponent build-up completion percentage, which is 15th in La Liga, per markstats.club.
Offensively, Real Madrid have quite possibly the most talent of anyone in the world and they've shown that this season, averaging 1.81 npxG per 90 minutes in La Liga. Vinicius Junior & Karim Benzema are having outstanding seasons, as Benzema is averaging 0.90 xG per 90 minutes while Vinicius Junior is averaging 0.65 xG + xA per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
They were only able to create 0.9 xG against Atletico the last time around, so we'll see if they have more difficulties breaking down their compact defense.
Atletico Madrid Facing Similar Issue
While Joao Felix has moved onto Chelsea, the Atletico attack is not the issue for them this season, it's something they haven't had issues with for a really long time. Similar to their rivals, it's defense.
Atletico Madrid are allowing 1.02 npxG per 90 minutes, which sounds like a low amount, but that is 10th in La Liga. If you compare it to their average last season of 0.86, it's actually a pretty significant downswing.
The main problem is that Atletico can't defend their penalty area at an elite level like they have in years past. They are currently in the bottom half of La Liga in passes allowed into the penalty area, crosses completed into their penalty area and xG allowed per set piece. Atletico also have conceded 21 big scoring chances already on the season, which is only three less than they conceded over the entirety of last season.
With that being said, Atletico are now an offensive force to be reckoned with. Diego Simeone's side is averaging 1.53 npxG per 90 minutes, which is third in La Liga behind only Barcelona and Real Madrid. They are also top five in shots per 90 big scoring chances and box entries.
In fact, Atletico have put up a whopping 9.1 xG in their four La Liga matches out of the World Cup break. Antoine Griezmann has been in his best form in years, putting up 0.82 xG + xA per 90 minutes and he will be Atletico's key to unlocking Real Madrid in transition.
Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid Pick
The days of Atletico sitting back in a 4-4-2 and being impossible to break down seem long gone. However, that has ushered in a new era of exciting attacking football under Diego Simeone.
With Real Madrid not threatening much pressure in transition, Atletico should be able to attack the Real back four and create a decent amount of high quality chances.
On the flip side, Benzema and company should be able to have field day against Atletico's average defense and most likely will be able to tilt the field on them and make them play a majority of the match in their own final third.
I have 3.07 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over in this fixture.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-103)
