Russia vs. Denmark Odds
| Russia Odds | +400 |
| Denmark Odds | -148 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+114 / -137) |
| Day | Time | Monday | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds updated Monday morning and via DraftKings. | |
Wouldn't it be something if the nation that lost its star player in the opening match of the Euro 2020 tournament somehow pulled off a minor miracle and reached the knockout stage?
Well, that's what Denmark hopes to do Monday when it looks to book its spot in the Round of 16 when it faces Russia in a crucial Group B finale at Parken Stadium in Copenhagen.
The Danes, who haven't had star midfielder Christian Eriksen since he suffered a medical emergency in the opening half of their game against Finland, are winless through two fixtures. However, a sizable win here — plus a little help from likely group winner Belgium in its match against Finland — could vault Denmark into second place.
As for Russia, anything but a defeat would secure their spot in the next round. The Russians picked up their lone win in a 1-0 shutout against Finland after suffering a 3-0 loss to Belgium in their opener.
Russia Controls Its Own Destiny in Group Finale
The Russians have gotten the results they probably expected up to this point. They had to know they'd struggle against mighty Belgium, which they did in a comprehensive thrashing on debut. And surely they thought they'd beat Finland — which they did — to set up a big meeting with Denmark.
Now, Russia does currently sit in second in the group via the tiebreaker over Finland, but they haven't been great thus far. The Russians won the expected-goals battle against the Finns via their 1.3-0.9 advantage, but they were thoroughly crushed in the advanced metric against Belgium, earning just 0.3 xG in the setback.
Tactically, Russia has shown two different looks thus far. The nation came out in a 4-2-3-1 formation against Belgium, but went with more of an attacking approach via a 3-4-3 setup against Finland. Obviously, manager Stanislav Cherchesov had the right idea, bringing a more offensive style to the Finland game and knowing three points were for the taking in that spot.
I fully expect Cherchesov to revert to the 4-2-3-1 or potentially get defensive, since the Russians only need a draw to move on. My guess is we see the 4-2-3-1 or perhaps something like a 4-1-4-1, which would create a defensive posture and get nine men behind the ball at most times. That way, Russia can attempt to absorb what will likely be a relentless Danish attack.
Can Denmark Pull Off Miracle in Copenhagen?
The last thing you want to do when you're making a wager on a match is to let your emotions play a factor in your decision making. Unfortunately, if you're someone like me, it's hard to not root for the Danes in this group finale.
Denmark had the virtually impossible task of playing the entire second half of its match against Finland minus Eriksen, who helped lead the nation to a dominating first-half performance before being stricken with illness. The Danes would go on to suffer a heartbreaking 1-0 loss against the Finns, despite having a 1.9-0.4 xG edge on that emotional day in Copenhagen.
Yet, despite that disappointing beginning, Denmark came out on its front foot against Belgium and actually struck for the first goal in the second minute of the game. However, Kevin DeBruyne's second-half appearance rallied the Belgians to the 2-1 victory. The Danes led in xG again, this time finishing with a 1.8-1.1 xG margin over powerful Belgians.
Now, Denmark has to not only beat Russia on home soil, but it needs to do so in blowout fashion. The Danes are minus-2 on goal difference with Finland, which means they need to rout the Russians and have the Finns get dealt a bad defeat to have any chance of moving on.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Prior to the start of this tournament, I had Denmark penciled in as the second-place finisher in this group. And somehow, despite an 0-2 record and Eriksen missing as he continues to be on the mend, the Danes still have an outside shot at the runner-up spot.
Denmark, which more than hung with Belgium last time out, isn't going to exit this event with a whimper. Throw in the emotional element the Danes will bring to the pitch and you have a team ready to make some noise in Copenhagen.
That said, I'm backing Denmark to bag all three points on the moneyline at -143 odds via DraftKings as my top selection. All of Denmark — and many other soccer fans around the world — will be pulling for the nation to pull off a miracle against Russia to earn a spot in the knockout round. The Danes are firmly up against it, but we've seen stranger things happen.
If you're looking for a little extra action, take a shot on Denmark scoring at least two goals at -118 odds. Not only do the Danes need a victory, they also need to score as many goals as possible to cut into Finland's edge in goal difference. Expect Denmark to leave everything on the pitch.
Pick: Denmark ML (-143) | Denmark Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-118)
