Euro 2024 continues on Saturday, July 2 as we continue the quarterfinal stage of Euro 2024.
Like World Cup 2022, I'll have projections for every game, along with analysis and any potential bets that result from showing projection value.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham's offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.
Let’s dive into my Euro 2024 match projections for Sunday's England – Switzerland and Netherlands – Turkey games.
England – Switzerland, 12 p.m. ET
England are 51.8% to win in 90 minutes and 68.6% to advance, per my projections. However, England's offensive rating has been falling all tournament, and I don't think it's settled into where it should be yet.
I think my projections are a bit high on the Three Lions. Meanwhile, Switzerland's ratings have remained relatively stable throughout the tournament.
Since I'm showing value on Switzerland's under and I think England's offense is overrated and yet the projections are still showing value on both teams to score – no, I'll back that alongside my colleague BJ Cunningham on this at -135.
Pick: Both Teams to Score – No (-135 via DraftKings)
Netherlands – Turkey, 3 p.m. ET
Netherlands are 66.4% to win in 90 minutes and 78.3% favorites to advance. Turkey are the weakest defensive team the Dutch have faced in this tournament so far. Turkey have also been lucky this tournament, allowing six goals versus 7.6 xGA while scoring seven versus 6.25 xGF, opening up some value on backing the Netherlands.
I'm also projecting this game to go over 2.5, so let's combine some bets that favor the over and the Dutch. While different coaches and rosters are in play, it is funny to note the last time these two teams met, Netherlands won 6-1 and that just so happens to be the single correct score that I show the highest expected ROI on. I'm willing to have some fun.
