Sheffield United vs Nottingham Forest Odds
| Sheffield United Odds | +375 |
| Nottingham Forest Odds | -150 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175o /+137u |
Nottingham Forest will try to avoid being dragged into the drop zone with already relegated Sheffield United when it visits Bramall Lane on Saturday.
Forest enters the weekend in control of its survival fate with three matches to play. But that could change quickly with a defeat after beginning the matchday only one point in front of Luton and two ahead of Burnley.
The Blades were officially eliminated from contention with last weekend's 5-1 thumping at Newcastle United. And this will easily be their best chance to earn a fourth victory before dropping back down to the League Championship, with a trip to Everton and home clash against Tottenham to follow in the final two fixtures.
Forest earned a 2-1 win in the teams' previous meeting back on Matchday 2, a game that included neither current manager. Are we in store for a similar result Saturday? Let's take a look below in our Sheffield United vs. Nottingham Forest preview.
Sheffield United
It's hard to know what else to say about the Blades' defensive woes this season.
Their 97 goals conceded is the second-highest total in Premier League history, despite the fact Chris Wilder's squad has three games still to play. They've conceded multiple goals in nine consecutive league games, kept only one clean sheet in the league all season, and now hit a new season low by conceding four or more in three straight matches.
What has to be most frustrating for Wilder since he's taken the reins is that his team has made very real, if not enormous, improvements in attack, but can't translate it to points in part because they're always conceding more goals than they should.
The xG models suggest those foes are scoring an additional three goals per every four games than xG models predict. Whereas in attack, their 34 goals scored is almost identical to their xG number, with 23 of those coming in the 20 games since the Blades re-hired Wilder and parted with Paul Heckingbottom.
Ben Brereton Díaz deserves better, with his indisputable positive influence on the front line resulting in frustratingly little improvement in outcomes. Since he arrived at Bramall Lane this winter, his team has scored in nine of his 11 starts, and scored twice in six of those 11. They've won zero of those matches.
Nottingham Forest
Meanwhile, Nuno Espírito Santo's Forest has been beset by an inability to turn chances into goals at the worst possible time.
The Trees have either matched or exceeded their opponents in xG created in each of their last four matches, and have only point to show for it. That run combined with a four-point deduction for violating Financial Fair Play violations has Forest inching back toward the drop zone and its own potential return to the League Championship two years following its promotion.
One of the problems has been a continued lack of a secondary goal-scoring threat. Chris Wood's 12 goals while deputizing for oft-injured Taiwo Awoniyi have exceeded expectations. But the former Newcastle man hasn't scored in three games, and his teammates have combined for only four goals in Forest's last nine.
That's just not enough to overcome the Trees' own defensive struggles, which are significant despite not being at the level of Sheffield United's. Their 62 goals conceded are about 14 more than the prediction of the xG model, the second-largest such deficit in the league behind the Blades' 28-goal chasm.
Of note to American fans, attacking midfielder Gio Reyna has made only two starts since his loan move to Espírito Santo's squad, and was the first player removed in a 2-0 defeat at Everton two games ago that helped the Toffees in their pursuit of safety.
Sheffield United vs Nottingham Forest
Prediction
It's strange to say, but Sheffield United has the more reliable attack at the moment. That doesn't necessarily mean they are the more likely team to win. But there is a reliability about what Brereton Díaz, Ollie McBurnie and Cameron Archer offer.
If they earn a rare result, most likely it's of the 2-2 or 2-1 variety. If they don't, they'll probably be conceding three or more.
Perhaps you could argue there's a danger in a letdown following their relegation confirmation. But that was a formality for some time, and the front group is talented enough that they should believe they can attract interest from other top-flight sides this summer, if that's what they want.
Meanwhile, Forest has scored only five goals in eight away matches against current bottom-half sides. The Blades are a special case in their defensive liabilities, but even so, that track record isn't worth taking a chance on at a very steep price for a visiting team.
So, I'm riding the same wager I've ridden for a while on the Blades, playing them to score two or more goals at +200 odds and an implied 33.3% probability. It's a far better price than an unlikely double-chance bet on the home side — and in my view, considerably more likely to pay out.
