We have almost reached the halfway point in the Serie A season and there are few surprising headlines, like Bologna surging into the race for the top four, last year's Champions Napoli falling down the table and Juventus making a surge back to prominence.
The halfway point of the season is a good time to take a step back and look at the futures market to see if there is anything worth playing. I have found two bets that are worth a play as we head into the second half of the season. Here are my soccer picks today.
Soccer Picks Today
Bologna to Finish in the Top Four (+800 via BetMGM)
What Thiago Motta has done with Bologna is nothing short of miraculous. A club that has been stuck in the middle of the Serie A table for years now finally has risen up the table. Given their tactical set up, they look like they are here to stay.
Bologna only have a +4.5 expected goal differential but their defensive solidity and Motta's tactics give them a real shot at qualifying for the Champions League.
Motta wants his team to build out of the back and they are using a lot of different tactical ideas to accomplish that. In their 2-0 win against Roma he used an idea that Pep Guardiola's Manchester City have been doing in build up with inverting their center backs to try and levitate pressure on the back line while also trying to overload the central area of the pitch.
The fullbacks will often stay high and wide as Bologna don't always look to play short passes. Goalkeeper Łukasz Skorupski often plays passes over the first line of the press to the fullbacks out wide where Bologna will then try to create overloads to build up out there.
The other aspect of this Bologna team that is fascinating is something called "micro transitions". When Bologna have the ball in build up they are always looking for the line breaking passes and runners in behind the defense. What has changed Bologna this season as opposed to last is the play of their main striker Joshua Zirkzee, who is having a breakout season and his production numbers don't look that impressive comparatively to other top end strikers, but he is special as a deep lying playmaker in Bologna's build up.
He's a tremendous ball carrier and passer always finding space and putting the ball on a platter for his teammates. Zirkzee has has only scored seven goals, but he's in the 86th percentile among Europe's top five league in shot creating actions.
Zirkzee’s nutmeg before the assist. Filthy baller.pic.twitter.com/99ZHfmhsdp
— Mfalsafa (@fcimrobin) December 20, 2023
When Bologna are out of possession they like to set up in a 4-1-4-1 and are incredibly good with their zonal marking, as they don't typically try to press opponents high, ranking 17th in high turnovers. It doesn't matter though because they have only allowed 13.5 non-penalty expected goals in 18 matches. One reason for that is they are doing a great job of limiting shots from inside their penalty area with only 50% of opponents shots coming from inside the 18-yard box, which is the third-lowest percentage in Serie A. They are only allowing 0.49 xG per 90 minutes from inside the 18 yard box, only Inter and Juventus have been better.
There are teams like Roma and Napoli behind them in the table that have better underlying numbers and are more talented, but they have European competitions to worry about coming up in February.
The best argument though for Bologna is the price at +800. There is no reason why they shouldn't be priced with Fiorentina and Atalanta who have way shorter odds when they are a better team right now without a European competition to worry about.
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Verona to be Relegated (-135 via BetMGM)
Verona have been pretty poor over the first half of the season and are sitting tied with Cagliari on points, right above the relegation zone.
They are in some hot water right now as their club owner Maurizio Setti has had his majority shares in the club seized as he is getting investigated for bankruptcy of a company connected to him and Verona’s holding company, Star Ball Srl, which owns a 100% stake in the Serie A club. Essentially, he is being accused of using Verona as a backing to avoid one of his other businesses from going bankrupt.
That has put Verona in a very bad position financially, which means they now have been forced to sell a lot of their best players. Promising young center back Isak Hien has already made a move to Atalanta, their top scorer Cyril Ngonge is about to be sold to Aston Villa, promising winger Filippo Terracciano is about to move to AC Milan and Josh Doig is close to joining Torino.
What this is a sign of is that Verona has already resigned to their fate. They know they are most likely getting relegated, so they are trying to get the best possible price for their high valued assets.
Even with all of those player, Verona have put up some downright terrible offensive numbers. They are only averaging 0.77 npxG per 90 minutes, which is dead last in Serie A, and they are losing Cyril Ngonge and Milan Druic, who have create close to half of their expected goals this season.
Not only that, but they have a really difficult schedule coming up that has Inter, Roma, Napoli, Bologna and Juventus in their next eight matches, so things could get very bad very quickly for Verona.
