Tottenham look to rebound from back to back losses when they host Brentford for a London Derby.
Spurs were beaten 1-0 by Arsenal in the North London Derby on Sunday, which means they have only picked up four points in their first four matches. Ange Postecoglu's build up system isn't working and Tottenham need to make a change, as they've been incredibly inefficient in creating high quality chances. The bad news is they are facing one of the more difficult defensive teams to play through on Saturday.
Brentford gave Manchester City everything that they could handle last Saturday, scoring inside the first 30 seconds, but ultimately they ended up losing the match 2-1. The Bees have looked good to begin the season and have historically given the Big Six fits ever since they were promoted to the Premier League. They've only lost twice to Tottenham in their last six meetings and will be a live underdog on Saturday.
Here is my Tottenham vs. Brentford prediction.
T0ttenham vs. Brentford Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Tottenham Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -175 | 2.5 -225o / +175u | -175 |
| Brentford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +140 | 2.5 -225o / +175u | +425 |
- Tottenham vs. Brentford moneyline odds: Tottenham -175, Brentford +425, Draw +350
- Tottenham vs. Brentford over/under: 2.5 goals (over -225, under +175)
- Tottenham vs. Brentford pick: Brentford +1
I am backing Brentford in Brentford vs. Tottenham.
Tottenham Preview
Tottenham are having a lot of problems in possession right now that are not suddenly going to be fixed when they play Brentford.
In two straight weeks they faced a team that has sat in a mid to low block for a majority of the match and they have taken 35 shots and have only created 1.9 expected goals off of those chances. The biggest problem that Tottenham have right now is they don’t have wingers who can beat the opposing fullbacks in 1 v 1 situations. Brennan Johnson and Heung Min Son are below the 50th percentile for successful take ons in the last calendar year, which means teams like Arsenal and Newcastle have played very compactly to deny any space through the middle and let Tottenham get the ball into wide areas.
The other problem is the midfield area gets so congested that even if Tottenham have a 6 v 5 or 5 v 4 overload there is no space to quickly move the ball through the opponent's defensive block. James Maddison will continually drop deep to try and pull a defender out of position, but Tottenham are not able to find a way through. In addition to that, when the center backs have the ball, the space from them to the rest of the attacking line is too far away, so the ball either ends up going side to side and once it goes backwards, teams like Brentford will have that as a trigger to press Tottenham.
Brentford Preview
Brentford came out of the gates with their hair on fire against Manchester City and scored inside the first 30 seconds of the match. They didn’t simply sit deep, absorb pressure and look to counter. They pressed Manchester City high and caused all sorts of problems in the first 20 minutes of the match. With that being said, overall they’ve been a very passive team, as they have the highest PPDA in the league right now. They are likely going to sit in their usual 5-3-2 and deny space in the middle of the pitch and force the ball into wide areas. Manchester City did create 2.1 expected goals, but their biggest chance came on a direct ball to Haaland over top of Brentford’s man to man press. Outside of that, Brentford limited City to a lot of low quality efforts.
What the Bees have shown so far this season is that they are still incredibly dangerous on set pieces and continue to be dangerous in transition. They did have trouble breaking against Manchester City’s press, but against Southampton and Liverpool they combined for 10 counterattacking shots. Yoane Wissa is out for an extended period of time, but Brentford can easily play a front three of Shade, Mbuemo and Lewis-Potter and still be effective.
Set pieces will be a massive advantage they have over Tottenham. Last year they created the second-most expected goals off of set pieces and despite losing their set piece coach to Chelsea, they are still top five in xG per set piece, while Tottenham have allowed the third-most expected goals off of set pieces this season.
Tottenham vs Brentford Prediction
This is a really good spot for Brentford given how well they can defend in their 5-3-2 against Tottenham's build up. The only winger that Tottenham have that can consistently beat defenders in 1 v 1 situations is Wilson Odobert, who they brought over from Burnley and was in the 99th percentile for successful take ons last season, but I am not sure he's going to start in this match.
Brentford can also capitalize on the two main weaknesses of Tottenham's defense. The Bees primarily play as a direct counterattacking team, which will be a good matchup against Tottenham's poor transition defense, and the Bees are one of the better set piece teams in the Premier League.
Here is one final stat: there were only four teams in the Premier League that had a positive xGD on the road last season: Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Brentford.
I only have Tottenham projected at -101, so I think there is a ton of value on Brentford +1 at -102.
