Tottenham vs Everton Odds
| Tottenham Odds | -239 |
| Everton Odds | +550 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -200 / +162 |
Tottenham look for their first win of the new season when they host Everton.
Tottenham looked incredible in the first half against Leicester on Monday, but they took their foot off the gas and allowed the Foxes back into the match, which ended in a 1-1 draw. The clear weaknesses last season for Spurs were still there on Monday night and don't look like they are getting fixed anytime soon and Everton are waiting to exploit those weaknesses.
Everything went from bad to worse in the opener for Everton after going down 2-0 in the second half with Ashley Young picking up a red card, putting the final nail in the coffin. The Toffees have dealt with more adversity the last three years than any club should but they underlying data is not as bad as the results have been. They gave Tottenham all sorts of issues last year and are poised to do the same on Saturday.
Here is my Tottenham vs Everton prediction.
Tottenham Picks
The first half against Leicester on Monday was peak Ange ball. Sustaining pressure, building up effectively through the middle of a defensive block and creating high quality chances off of combination passing.
Then in the second half you start to see the problems that Spurs have that Ange still needs addressing. Transition defense, box defending and defending set pieces are all still glaring issues that Everton can exploit just like they did last season.
Because they play so aggressively inverting Porro and Udogie in possession when they build up in a 2-3-5, Tottenham leave themselves incredibly vulnerable to transition breaks, which is where Everton thrive. Last season Tottenham were 17th in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed and the way Leicester were able to hit them in transition in the second half when they started to play more direct is a big concern.
Everton Picks
Everton are one of the better "route one" teams in the Premier League. While the rest of the Premier League has shifted to more of a possession-dominant, build out of the back style, Sean Dyche's team favors a more old school way of playing.
The Toffees usually set up in a 4-4-1-1 type of shape with the aim at playing a mid to high block to force turnovers high up the pitch to create easy transition opportunities. The main point of the structure is to make it incredibly difficult for teams to play through the middle of the pitch. Last season Everton were fourth in the Premier League defensively, allowing only 1.29 npxG per 90 minutes and they also were top five in big scoring chances allowed.
In the first meeting at Tottenham last year they created 1.8 expected goals to Tottenham’s 1.5, took 18 shots and had 31 touches in the penalty area. Then in the second meeting, Everton created 2.6 expected goals with almost all of them coming off corners. They have a clear aerial and physical advantage on set pieces and Dyche hammered that point home. Tottenham conceded the third-worst xG per shot last season, while Everton scored the second-most goals off of set pieces.
Tottenham vs Everton
Prediction
Everton are going to sit in a mid to high block, closing off the middle of the pitch and looking to create high turnovers for those easy transition opportunities. The way Tottenham looked in the second half on Monday when Leicester started to apply ball pressure should have Sean Dyche grinning from ear to ear.
Purely going off expected goal differential last season, Tottenham finished with a +4.8 xGD, while Everton were at -1.2. So, the odds are far too wide in Tottenham’s favor given the fact that they were only a little bit better than Everton last season.
I have both teams to socre projected at -192, so I like the value on the current line of -140 and also Everton +1.5 at -143.
