Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Inter Milan Champions League Odds & Picks (Tuesday, Oct. 27)

Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Inter Odds

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Antonio Conte's Inter Milan side travels to Ukraine for an away fixture in the Champions League on Tuesday. These two clubs have recent history, most recently facing  off in last season's Europa League semifinal round.

Shakhtar is coming off a huge away win over Real Madrid in Matchday 1 of the Champions League. That said, you should expect fireworks in this match.

Shakhtar Donetsk

Of the under-the-radar Champions League clubs, Shakhtar is really fun watch. However, it might not be considered "under the radar" anymore. Nevertheless, Shakhtar is still swimming upstream in most of its matches in this competition.

I loved betting the over in all of Shakhtar's Europa League matches last season due to its aggressive nature and finishing ability. The club is currently third in the Ukrainian Premier League through seven matches, where it averages 3.4 goals per match. Also, there are about 1.1 more goals when it plays at home than on the road.

Shakhtar took advantage of a sleepy Madrid squad in Matchday 1 and got out to a 3-0 halftime lead before letting Los Blancos creep back into the game over the last 25 minutes. Shakhtar's xG was 1.40 compared to Real's 1.05 on that day, with some clinical finishing leading it to all three points.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

I would be hesitant to extrapolate too much from that match, though. Shakhtar had players missing due to positive COVID-19 test results, while Madrid didn't have captain Sergio Ramos to lead the defense and it just wasn't ready to play. It was a fantastic win, but I'm not going to call for Shakhtar to get out of this difficult group just yet.

Inter beat Shakhtar, 5-0, in the Europa League semifinal round back in August. The xG tally was in favor of the Italians by a 1.54-0.72 margin. From the eye test, it was a thoroughly dominant performance by the Nerazzurri.

The Ukrainian side played pretty defensively, which was rare and surprising. I boil it down to nerves of being in a semifinal against a European giant. I would expect Shakhtar to play more of its game here and get on the front foot.

Inter

If you read my Champions League futures and group-stage preview, you'll know I am pretty high on Inter this season. The club isn't one of the favorites, but I do think it has the squad and manager to make a deep run here.

Manager Antonio Conte, who has a mind for getting defensive results, has a relatively talented midfield and the attacking partnership of Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez is very dangerous. Lukaku gets a lot of heat for coming up small in big games, but he is flat-out dominant in most games. His physical presence alone is too much for defenders to handle.

The Nerazzurri has started out well domestically, going 3-1-1 overall. Its lone loss was to rival AC Milan in a match Inter actually won the xG battle by a 2.55-2.06 margin.

Inter's first Champions League fixture of the season ended a 2-2 draw against German up-and-comer Borussia Monchengladbach. It was a very entertaining game, which is what I was expecting. I really do think Inter got the short end of the stick in that fixture, though.

According to xG, it wasn't even close, with Inter holding a 3.51-1.45 edge. This really came down to some boneheaded errors from Arturo Vidal. The fiery Chilean made a clumsy challenge in the box, leading to a penalty kick for Monchengladbach's opener. Vidal lost track of his man on the left wing for the second goal.

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Inter also needs to be more clinical, as trailing its xG by 1.5 goals isn't ideal. However, I would take some positives from that draw and hope these details can be ironed out by Conte.

Shakhtar Donetsk-Inter pick

I think Inter is the play here at -136. I would play it up to -145 and would consider this a bargain. I'm pro-Shakhtar, but Inter is the class side.

I also expect some goals here, from evidence I have detailed above. I'd parlay Over 2.5 goals (-200) with Both Teams To Score (-180), which would get you to -122 on DraftKings.

Picks: Inter ML -136 (up to -145) | Parlay: Total Over 2.5 and BTTS at -122

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