WTA Madrid is set to begin and the quality of tennis should be through the roof!
I’ve found value on two of Tuesday's matchups – Tsurenko vs Eala and Begu vs Fruhvirtova.
Read on to find Madrid picks for Tuesday, April 23.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Madrid Open Odds, Predictions, Picks
Lesia Tsurenko (-400) vs Alexandra Eala (+290)
5 a.m. ET
Lesia Tsurenko last played in the Billie Jean King Cup, losing on green clay to an in-form Jaqueline Cristian, 6-2, 4-6, 4-6. Tsurenko won 54% of her service points, getting broken on six occasions. The Ukrainian did win 49% of her return points, breaking six times herself.
Tsurenko has a solid 167-115 career-record on clay, although the Madrid altitude bring unique challenges. When not injured, Tsurenko plays with consistent depth and moves well. Tsurenko places her shots effectively and can hit with power from her backhand wing. The Ukrainian has a high tennis IQ, understanding point construction and shot selection.
Alexandra Eala most recently competed in the Oeiras Challenger (red clay), losing 6-2, 4-6, 4-6 to Julia Avdeeva. Eala won just 52% of her service points, getting broken six times. The Filipino benefitted from 15 double faults, winning 67% of her second-serve returns and breaking on six occasions.
Eala is just 9-13 on clay as a professional and has won a combined two games in her last two appearances in Madrid. Eala attempts to dictate play with her heavy, lefty forehand and can dictate from this wing, at times. The problem for the 18 year-old is that she often loses control from this wing, overhitting, and her backhand leaks errors.
Tsurenko is significantly more experienced and competent on clay. She's a better mover, more comfortable in the conditions and more patient.
Tsurenko does a much better job of constructing points on clay and hitting with precision. And Eala's heavy lefty cross-court forehand will go right into Tsurenko's strength, her backhand.
There's nothing that Eala can do to hurt Tsurenko, as she doesn't have a massive serve either. And altitude is not some "great equalizer," as Eala has been horrific in her last two matches in Madrid.
Finally, Tsurenko's overall Elo is 391.9 points higher than Eala's and her clay Elo is 528.3 points above the Filipino's.
Pick: Under 19.5 games (+100 via BetMGM)
Irina-Camelia Begu (-225) vs Linda Fruhvirtova (+175)
8 a.m. ET
Irina-Camelia Begu, who recently came back to the tour after an elbow ailment, fell in the final of the Antalya Challenger (red clay) to Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-2, 4-6, 6-2. Begu won 51% of her service points and was broken six times. The Romanian also won 40% of her return points, breaking on three occasions.
Begu has an impressive 288-141 career-record on the dirt and came a set away from the Madrid semifinals last season, ultimately losing to Maria Sakkari in three sets. Begu is comfortable both on clay and in altitude conditions. The 33 year-old veteran is consistent, places her shots well and has a high tennis IQ. And the reason that Begu experienced so much success in Madrid last season was that she was able to get more pop on her forehand, her preferred side, which she used to control the baseline.
Linda Fruhvirtova last played in Charleston (green clay), losing in the final round of qualifying 6-3, 4-6, 3-6 to Claire Liu. Fruhvirtova won just 50% of her service points and was broken seven times. However, the Czech did win 47% of her return points and broke Liu's serve on six occasions.
Fruhvirtova is just 16-22 on clay as a professional. The 18 year-old is consistent and defends well, but she has a severe lack of power. Both on her serve and from the baseline, Fruhvirtova struggles to hit through the court and has to constantly rely on her legs and opponents' errors to bail herself out. She does have decent variety and is quick, but it's tough when her serve sits up in the box like a meatball and her groundstrokes lack any form of punch.
Begu is much more comfortable in the forecourt, while still having the consistency, movement and defensive skills to play long rallies when necessary. Especially given how well she's used the Madrid altitude to her advantage in the past, look for Begu to patiently control the baseline and wait for her opportunity to strike.
And while Begu's serve isn't a strength, she can hit her spots. She should also be all over Fruhvirtova's weak serve during the Romanian's return games.
Finally, Begu's overall Elo is 249.3 points higher than Fruhvirtova's and her clay Elo is 350.6 points above the Czech's.
Pick: Begu -3.5 games (-130 via PointsBet)
