The Aces title hopes remain alive following a 95-81 win over the Liberty in Game 3. While a 14-point victory might look reasonably comfortable on the stats sheet, the game was much closer than the scoreline would suggest.
But how did things turn so poorly for New York after only trailing by three points at halftime? The answer to that question could be essential when making our predictions for Game 4.
In this preview, I'll share why Liberty fans should still feel comfortable coming off the disappointing loss.
Below is my Aces vs Liberty prediction.
Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty Prediction
The Las Vegas Aces turned the table on the Liberty, dominating Game 3 inside the paint en route to a 95-81 victory.
However, New York's loss boiled down to a disastrous third quarter and the loss of a key player due to excessive fouls. Aside from that quarter, New York didn't play all that poorly, making it a likely candidate to bounce back in Game 4.
Aces vs. Liberty Pick: Liberty 1Q team total over 20.5 points (-125 at FanDuel) | Liberty +3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 166.5 -110o / -110u | +142 |
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 166.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
New York Liberty: Stay Out of Foul Trouble
While I've always viewed an ability to read and interpret a box score as an art form, there's nothing quite like being able to watch a game and give it the old eye test. I read through as many recaps about Game 3 as possible, and even then, the narrative seemed to miss its mark.
Much of the commentary after the game centered on the Aces' ability to limit the effectiveness of Liberty point guard Sabrina Ionescu. Ionescu scored just four points on 1-of-7 shooting while committing five turnovers. The Vegas game plan was to stop Ionescu from driving into the lane and often blitzing her with two or three defenders at a time.
New York dominated Las Vegas inside the paint through the first two games, averaging 43 points to the Aces' 31.
However, in Game 3, it was the Aces who dominated the interior by a 42-28 margin.
But the Aces' defensive adjustment to guarding Ionescu wasn't the only thing that led to their success inside the paint. New York forward Jonquel Jones got into foul trouble in the second quarter after picking up her third infraction five seconds apart.
Jones would sit on the bench for the final 4:07 minutes in the quarter and later picked up her fourth foul five minutes into the third quarter.
As soon as Jones was in foul trouble, the game began to open up for Las Vegas. She even played tentatively in the second half while trying to avoid another unnecessary foul. If she can avoid drawing attention from referees, New York will have an excellent chance to bounce back in Game 4.
Las Vegas Aces: Can Vegas Show Up Defensively?
There's a lot of talk about how well Las Vegas played on defense. Yet, it still allowed 81 points, with New York shooting 12-of-29 from beyond the arc (41.4%).
Both teams are shooting at an incredibly high rate on three-pointers in this series, with Las Vegas at 38.1% and New York at 37.7%.
Thus, until we see those numbers taper off, it's tough to give the Aces too much credit defensively.
New York's worst stretch in Game 3 coincides with Jones getting into foul trouble. The Liberty went on a 7:36 field goal drought in the third quarter and finished with just six points.
However, New York had a +1 point differential in the other three quarters.
Without Jones on the court, the Aces also did a much better job on the glass. They finished with 34 rebounds after averaging 25.5 through the first two games.
By collecting more rebounds, the Aces improved their performance inside the paint by creating extra scoring opportunities for themselves while also limiting those second chances for New York.
Since Jones entered the game as the leading rebounder in the series, she's likely to play a vital role in any success that New York will have.
Liberty vs. Aces
Betting Pick & Prediction: Eyes On The First Quarter
The Liberty and Aces are showing the best version of the WNBA in this high-profile matchup. Both teams have an Effective Field Goal Rate (eFG%) of 53% or higher in this series.
And given what we've seen through the first three games, there doesn't seem to be any signs of them cooling off from the perimeter.
This is high-level basketball of the best variety because it's not like they're playing at a breakneck tempo. The teams are averaging 78.5 possessions per 40 minutes in this series, which would qualify as the second-slowest pace during the regular season behind the Connecticut Sun (77.76).
One of the more interesting trends in this series is that the teams combined to score exactly 49 points in the first quarter of each game thus far.
A first-quarter wager is an excellent option, considering we should expect at least some kind of response from New York. FanDuel lists its first-quarter team total at 20.5, and New York has also exceeded this number in all three games.
This Game 4 is also crucial for New York because the last thing it'll want to do is to allow the Aces to continue to breathe life back into the series. New York won five of the six meetings this season, and I'm not entirely convinced that one win by the Aces was enough to close the gap.
While it wouldn't surprise me if New York ends the series in four games, catching 3.5 points on the spread as an underdog is too good to pass up.
Aces vs. Liberty Pick: Liberty 1Q team total over 20.5 points (-125 at FanDuel) | Liberty +3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
How to Watch Liberty vs. Aces Game 4
| Aces vs. Liberty | Sunday, October 6 |
| Start Time: | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Michelob ULTRA Arena, Paradise, Nevada |
