Liberty vs. Aces Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 -112 | 172.5 -110 / -110 | +106 |
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -108 | 172.5 -110 / -110 | -130 |
The Aces' (6-5) quest for a third-straight title could be in real peril as the team has nearly as many losses as it did all of last season (34-6). Even with point guard Chelsea Gray (foot) yet to make her debut, the Aces' roster should be deep enough to withstand her absence after returning most of their key players during the offseason.
Las Vegas remains one of the best offensive teams in the league, ranking second in efficiency with a 106.0 value.
However, its struggles have come on the defensive end of the court, where it ranks ninth with a 103.6 rating. Last season, the Aces led the league in that category, allowing 97.7 points per 100 possessions.
Opponents have identified a specific weakness in the Aces, and you can be sure the New York Liberty will seek to exploit that vulnerability when the two teams meet for the first time this season.
New York Liberty
Like Las Vegas, New York kept the core of its roster intact with the hope of challenging for the WNBA title. As a result, we shouldn't be too surprised by the Liberty's 11-2 start to the campaign.
New York leads the league in Offensive Efficiency (106.7), and it ranks second in Net Rating (12.6) behind Connecticut (12.7). There appears to be more balance within the team as Jonquel Jones finally looks settled in enough to share some of the workload with Breanna Stewart.
Jones increased her scoring average from 11.3 to 15.5 points in her second season with the team.
While increasing her field goal attempts from 8.4 to 10.3, Jones has also managed to shoot more efficiently, as evidenced by her 56.7% field goal percentage.
However, the biggest difference to her game has come on the perimeter, where she's averaging roughly two more attempts (4.3) per game with 1.7 3-point field goals. Jones is shooting 39.3% from beyond the arc, which is even better than her teammate, Sabrina Ionescu, who shot a whopping 44.8% last season on 3-point attempts (7.9 per game).
New York will need Jones to remain aggressive from the perimeter against an Aces team that ranks second in 3-point field goals (9.9) per game.
Las Vegas Aces
You could say the Aces are prisoners of their own success because they've essentially developed the blueprint for how teams play in the league today. Last year, only two teams (New York and Las Vegas) finished the season averaging nine or more 3-pointers per game.
This season, that number is currently up to five teams.
The biggest difference for the Aces in this campaign is that they have the second-worst perimeter defense, allowing 9.6 3-pointers per game. Opponents are essentially averaging two more 3-pointers per game against the Aces this season compared to last year.
Moreover, opponents shoot a higher 3-point percentage (39%) against the Aces than against any other team.
Although the Aces look decent offensively, some complacency has started to set in defensively.
Frankly, Las Vegas doesn't necessarily have the same margin for error because its offensive rating is seven points lower compared to last season. The gap between the Aces and their opponents has also started to narrow, with teams around the league placing a greater emphasis on the 3-point shot.
Liberty vs. Aces
Betting Pick & Prediction
There's always the thought that the Aces will pick things up where they left off once Gray returns to the team.
However, Las Vegas is starting to form some bad habits as this poor perimeter defense can linger throughout the season. New York is certainly one team that can expose the Aces from beyond the arc.
Las Vegas continues to play at a blistering pace, ranking first with 82.32 possessions per 40 minutes. That pace should result in a high-scoring contest when you factor in the 3-point precision of both teams.
As a result, bettors can find value in this matchup by taking advantage of a DraftKings same-game parlay with adjusted odds. If you adjust the point spread and total by 4.5 points, you can grab New York at +7 and play this game over 167.5 points.
That combination is one way to avoid having to pay the juice for the game while also getting a better return with odds at +108.
