The Connecticut Sun already has eyes for the postseason after landing Marina Mabrey via a trade with Chicago in exchange for Moriah Jefferson, Rachel Banham, a 2025 first-round pick, and swap rights for a 2026 first-round pick.
Since this was an Olympic year, Mabrey won't take the court with her new teammates until Friday, when Connecticut hits the road to take on the Wings.
Her arrival should help bolster the Sun's perimeter shooting, considering they rank 10th from beyond the arc with 5.5 3-pointers per game.
However, she'll have to transition from being a starter in Chicago to a player who comes off the bench.
Thus, there's no guarantee that we'll see an immediate impact in scoring for these upcoming games for the Sun.
Let's preview the matchup and break down my Sun vs. Wings prediction for Friday, August 16.
Sun vs. Wings Prediction
With the the Connecticut Sun getting that much stronger with the addition of Marina Mabrey on their roster, the Dallas Wings will face a tall task against a team that is already setting their sights on the WNBA playoffs. Due to this, I'm taking the under on this matchup between the Sun and Wings.
Sun vs. Wings Odds
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -108 | 161 -110o / -110u | -260 |
| Wings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -112 | 161 -110o / -110u | +205 |
Connecticut Sun: Controlling the Tempo
There's no question that Connecticut is one of the better defensive teams in the league, ranking second in efficiency behind the Lynx, with 93.8 points allowed per 100 possessions.
Yet, while Minnesota's defensive rating is only a tenth of a point better, it's averaging an additional two possessions (79 per 40 minutes) per game than Connecticut (76.97).
Therefore, Connecticut benefits even more defensively because it can slow the game down almost to a grinding halt.
Even if we just focused on Connecticut's pace of play on the road (77.62 possessions per 40 minutes), it would still be the lowest mark across the league.
As a result, Connecticut does a tremendous job dictating the tempo of its games.
Playing good defense is one thing, but limiting the number of possessions can make it difficult for your opponents to establish a rhythm.
Dallas Wings: Sabally's Return
The Dallas Wings have been one of the more disappointing teams this season. With a record of 6-19, they're tied for the worst record in the league.
A season ago, Dallas finished with the fourth-best record in the league at 22-18. But to be fair, Dallas played the first half of the season without Satou Sabally.
The Oregon product averaged 18.6 points last year in her fourth season with the Wings while picking up the Most Improved Player award.
Unfortunately, she injured her shoulder in February while helping Germany qualify for the Olympics.
There wasn't much detail surrounding the full extent of the injury or her recovery timeline. It's just a bit odd that her return seemed to line up with the Paris games.
If Sabally spent most of her rehab stint in Germany preparing for the Olympics instead of being around her Dallas teammates, then the Wings might need to smooth out a few things before she steps back on the court.
Conditioning could also be an issue as she seemed to fade in the final two Olympic games against the U.S. and France. She averaged 12.5 points on 28.6% shooting from the floor after averaging 25 points (51.9%) in the first two games.
While the Wings are happy to have her back, it might take her a little longer to regain her form from the previous campaign.
Sun vs. Wings: A Defensive Masterclass
Betting Pick & Prediction
Connecticut is not an opponent you particularly want to play against when trying to reacclimate yourself into the team.
It's a highly aggressive team that ranks second in creating turnovers with 16.5 per game.
What's interesting is that teams that like to play fast actually work in Connecticut's favor because it's easier for their opponents to get sped up and turn the ball over.
If you look at Connecticut's games this season against the three teams (Las Vegas, Seattle and Dallas) that play at the fastest pace, the under is a perfect 4-0.
Given the long layoff for both teams, which have to shuffle their rosters, I can only look to the under at 161.5 points or better.
