The WNBA has two early games on the slate for Saturday, July 13:
- Liberty vs. Sky at 1 p.m. ET
- Sparks vs. Wings at 3:30 p.m. ET
Read below for my WNBA first basket picks.
WNBA First Basket Picks: Saturday, July 13
McCowan ranks 39th across the WNBA in points per game and 46th in field goal attempts per game. Yet, nobody dominates first basket usage like the Mississippi State product. She has secured the Wings’ first shot in 13-of-22 starts, or 59%, which leads the league (minimum 10 starts).
The matchup is juicy too. Los Angeles’ defense has given up the largest restricted area field goal percentage and second largest paint field goal percentage since rookie Cameron Brink’s season-ending injury. That benefits McCowan because 89% of her field goal attempts come from the paint.
Additionally, the Sparks allow the most points per possession on post ups – McCowan’s main source of offense.
I would play McCowan first Wings basket at three quarters of a unit and down to +180 odds. Meanwhile, I recommend her first basket at a quarter of a unit and down to +450 odds.
Sims’ 1.27 points per shot at the rim sits in the 83rd percentile via Synergy Sports, and she is third among Dallas' starters in restricted area attempts per game. Her efficiency should translate against a Brink-less Sparks interior defense.
Opponents have secured plenty of shots from above-the-break since Brink’s injury too, which is a green flag for Sims. She has knocked down a monstrous 57.9% of shots in this area, and Arike Ogunbowale is the sole Wing who takes more above-the-break attempts per game.
Sims has yet to take the first shot of the game for Dallas, but five starts is a tiny sample that should not discourage action.
At +1200 odds, she’s worth a quarter of a unit sprinkle. I would not play this line any lower than +1050 odds.
In 27.2% of her starts, Hamby has notched Los Angeles’ first shot of the game. That mark is second best on the team behind only Rickea Jackson (35.2%).
Dallas’ defense does not deter shots at the rim, and they subsequently surrender the third most restricted area attempts per game. That’s excellent for Hamby, as her 7.2 attempts per game from this location ranks second in the WNBA – only Angel Reese averages more.
Hamby is also an efficient scorer, which makes it more likely that she can convert the opportunity. Her 58.2 true shooting percentage is 4.6% better than league average.
I recommend wagering half of a unit, down to +220 odds.
