The Ravens and Bills close out the NFL Divisional Round with a trip to the AFC Championship Game on the line. Kickoff from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS, and the game can be streamed on Paramount+.
These teams met earlier this season, and the Ravens won in a blowout in Baltimore. The two best quarterbacks in the NFL will face off in what should be a memorable playoff matchup.
Let's get into our NFL predictions for Ravens vs. Bills.
Ravens vs. Bills Picks
Ravens vs. Bills Prediction Against the Spread
By John LanFranca
The perceptions of the Ravens defense over the first half of the regular season were justified. They struggled to defend competent passing attacks, and it seemed to be the achilles heel of a potential Super Bowl type roster.
However, there is no doubt things have changed on the defensive side of the ball for Baltimore. With Kyle Hamilton fully healthy leading this unit, it has become one of the most versatile defenses in the NFL. From Weeks 13 until the end of the regular season in Week 18, the Ravens boasted the best defense in football in scoring defense, red-zone efficiency, third-down conversion rate, total defense (yards) and opponent passer rating.
While the Ravens defense has peaked heading into the playoffs, the same cannot be said for the Bills. Since Week 11, the Ravens pass defense has been elite, ranking number one in the NFL in yards per attempt allowed. Buffalo was 28th ahead of just the Bears, Panthers, Jaguars and Giants.
One reason the Bills struggle to defend the pass is their inability to take away their opponent's first read in the quarterbacks' passing progression. Over that same aforementioned span since week 11, Buffalo has ranked 26th in percentage in which it forced passers to look past their first read. The Ravens ranked first in this category, as well.
The Ravens went extremely zone-heavy on defense against the Bills in their blowout win back in Week 4. The only other team that played zone at that high of rate, near 70%, against Josh Allen, was the Colts in week 10. Allen failed to throw a touchdown in both games.
The Ravens are battled tested, playing 11 playoff teams this season, going 8-3 against the best competition the NFL has to offer. Buffalo went 3-3 against playoffs teams during the regular season. The Ravens will advance to the AFC Championship on Sunday night and cover the spread in the process. I'd play them up to -2.
Ravens vs. Bills Over/Under Pick
By Nick Giffen
According to our NFL Luck Rankings model, this heavyweight battle between Baltimore and Buffalo shows that these two teams have combined to play in games that come in well above those games' Expected Scores.
The crazier part? It seems the market has properly adjusted, as the total currently sits at 51.5, which is almost exactly where my midweek numbers have this game before adjusting for any potential injuries or other personnel scenarios (my number is between 51 and 51.5).
Given what we saw with the Luck Under last week, when Broncos vs. Bills took some late steam to push all the way up to 49.5 at some shops at close, I'm in no hurry to bet this one as I show no early edge and expect this total to move up closer to kick.
Ravens vs. Bills Player Props
By Grant Neiffer
Zay Flowers being unlikely to play will likely give an increase to Mark Andrews' volume, but this line is still too high.
