While early action is on the Ravens in a juggernaut AFC Divisional Round matchup, Simon Hunter expressed skepticism about that on "The Favorites" on Sunday night.
Early Bills vs. Ravens odds had Buffalo as a 1.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks, and it even opened at -2 at some shops. The line moved through zero, and Baltimore is now favored.
Let's get to Hunter's breakdown.
Bills vs. Ravens Odds, Prediction: AFC Divisional Round
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -115 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -105 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -110 |
- Ravens vs. Bills spread: Ravens -1 (-115), Bills +1 (-105)
- Ravens vs. Bills over/under: 51.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Ravens vs. Bills moneyline: Ravens -110, Bills -110
When it comes to taking the Bills over the Ravens, it's all about the value to me.
The Bills should be favored in this matchup at home. Plus, we're looking at Lamar Jackson hitting the road for a playoff game, and history hasn't exactly been kind to him in these scenarios. Last year, Jackson had an easy ride beating a weak Texans team in the Divisional Round before falling on his face against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.
Fast forward to now and Jackson is on the road again, this time against a formidable Bills team. Sure, there are arguments to be made for the Ravens, who have early money flowing in their direction. This line opened as high as Bills -2, and now Buffalo is a home underdog across the board except for a couple of books holding out as a pick'em.
I know it seems like the Ravens are a hot team, but let's not ignore that they ended their season against some subpar competition, including two games in their last five against the woeful Steelers. Matchups like that turned Baltimore's defense around just in time to beat the Giants, Steelers, Texans (whose offense hasn't been great this season), and a Browns team that wasn't exactly striking fear into opponents.
Overall, I'm skeptical about the buzz the Ravens defense has created.
From where I stand, the Bills should be favored, especially when you look at how Josh Allen is playing. He had another efficient and clinical performance against the Bills and is thriving coming into this matchup.
I get the Ravens were the smart bet when bettors could grab two points with them, but those odds have shifted and the value now tilts toward the Bills.
My confidence lies in Allen, particularly when he's at home. If he has the ball last, I trust him to seal the deal. When he stumbles, it's usually because the Bills defense can't hold the line, not because of his own performance. You can't say the same for Jackson, though.
It's not like I'm thrilled about betting against Jackson and Derrick Henry — I mean, who would be? I'm just hoping the sportsbooks will give us a better number so I can take the Bills as underdogs on their home turf.
Bottom line: Allen shines at home. Also, with Jackson's spotty playoff history, I'm not banking on him to deliver a big road win.
