With half of the Conference Championship matchups set, both No. 1 seeds find out who they're playing next week with the final two divisional-round games. First up is the upstart Bucs, who look to pull off a second consecutive upset against the Lions. Then, we have a rematch from a 2022 playoff classic, as the Chiefs travel to Buffalo as slight underdogs.
Both games present some solid live betting angles, so we anticipate making a pick for each contest. However, for more live-betting action, tune in to Bet What Happens Live with Dr. Nick at the two-minute warning of both games.
As an added bonus, FanDuel is offering a 50% profit boost on any live bets today. That's likely enough to make up for slightly worse lines, so we'll default to betting there unless the difference in the line offered is significant.
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NFL Live Betting for Divisional Round Sunday
Chiefs at Bills: Probably Unders — LIVE BET MADE, Over 53.5 (-114, FanDuel)
With both offenses playing well and the game close, we're going to take another over. There should probably have been more points than we've had already, with two red-zone field goals and just one punt in the first half of play. While the total has risen to 53.5 at -114, that still represents a lower scoring second half than first half since there's been 30 points already in the first. It's also helpful that the trailing Chiefs get first crack in the second half (as well as 26 seconds to attempt a quick score before halftime).
Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 45.5 -115o / -105u | +128 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -122 | 45.5 -115o / -105u | -152 |
The last time these teams met in the playoffs was an instant classic, with 78 total points, 34 of those being scored in the fourth quarter and overtime. A lot has changed since then.
The biggest difference is both teams' defensive improvements, especially against the pass. Both units have shifted to "bend but don't break" defenses that rank top-five in yards allowed per pass, but bottom ten against the run. On top of that, the Chiefs no longer have Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce has declined considerably, and the same could (arguably) be said for Stefon Diggs.
The pregame total of 46.5 is shaded up thanks to the memory of what these teams used to be, rather than what they are now. On top of that, the weather could be a factor here, with a wind chill of around zero degrees and gusts up to 20 miles per hour. That falls more under "slight downgrade" than a major factor, but it's worth considering.
Finally, the pace points to a slower game — if either team gets up to a lead. Both teams are in the bottom quartile of seconds per play when leading at least a touchdown, and below average when trailing. The nature of both defenses being strong against the pass also makes comebacks difficult, which in turn lowers the pressure on the leading team to keep scoring.
The lone exception is a close game. A tight game script leaves the running game as an option for both teams, while also boosting the pace of play a bit. We'd need some big downward movement on the pregame total before going that route, but it's worth keeping an eye on.
Finally, we could also consider betting the leading team's point spread or moneyline depending on how that line moves. As noted above, playing catch up will be difficult here for either unit.
Our Sunday Live Bet from Earlier
Bucs at Lions: Overs In a Close Game, Unders Otherwise — LIVE BET MADE, Over 44.5 (-106, FanDuel)
Tampa Bay tied the game at 10 with a few seconds left in the first half, changing the expected game script in the second half. The underdog Bucs also start with the ball in the third quarter, giving them a chance to put the Lions on the back foot. With the total dropping six points to 44.5 we'll — somewhat reluctantly — take the over. At FanDuel, the 50% profit boost turns the line from -106 to +142.
Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 49.5 -114o / -106u | +250 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 49.5 -114o / -106u | -310 |
Assuming this one follows the script represented by the spread — which has Detroit favored by about a touchdown — it's an awesome spot for live unders. I already bet that there will be more first half points than second, with Dr. Nick on the pregame under of right around 50.
Both picks are coming from the same logic, that this game is unlikely to be the shootout that the pregame line implies. The benefit to playing it live rather than pregame is two-fold. Most importantly, if we time it right we can catch a better number. Additionally, if this game goes "off script" so to speak, we can keep our money in our pocket.
Detroit wants to play run-heavy, with a bottom-six rank in both Pass Rate Over Expectation and overall pass rate. However, they'll attack aggressively when need be — like early in games before getting off to a lead. I also have a pet theory that their offense is far more efficient during the typical scripted play window. That tends to be the first 15(ish) offensive plays, which star offensive coordinator Ben Johnson draws up ahead of time. Numbers back that up (to an extent), with the Lions ranking second in the NFL in first quarter points but "just" fifth overall.
The other factor is the Tampa defense, which ranks top-five in yards allowed per rush but 24th in yards allowed per pass. A Lions lead tilts them to the run, which we anticipate being less efficient. Assuming a Lions lead, or potentially a surprising Tampa one, we're going to be fairly flexible on the number. Any line that requires more points in the second half than we saw in the first will work, even if it's a bit down from the pregame mark.
On the other hand, a close (ideally low-scoring) game should keep both teams aggressive. With Detroit also somewhat of a pass funnel defense, that should be good for scoring. We'll be pickier about taking the overs — since our prior assumption is this game is likelier to go under — but would be interested at the right number.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
