NFL Picks, Predictions | Week 12
My favorite NFL Week 12 picks are below. I'm on two spreads, a moneyline and a total on Sunday afternoon. Check out my NFL picks below. You can navigate this post by clicking on a pick below.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Jaguars vs. Texans
A Texans offense that is averaging 30 points and 486.0 total yards over its past three games gets another good matchup: The Jaguars play the sixth-most zone coverage, and the Texans lead the league in Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt against zone coverage (8.6).
The Texans have also played much better at home this season.
- Home: 26.0 points per game, +5.4 points differential, 410.4 total yards, 6.1 yards per play
- Road: 21.6 points per game, +0.6 points differential, 344.0 total yards, 5.4 yards per play
The Texans defense has been a lot better since its bye week, allowing a 39.5% success rate compared to a 45.2% success rate before the bye.
The Jaguars, meanwhile, have 5.7 Pythagorean wins and have been out-gained 341-334 on average. They’ve gained 5.1 yards per play but allowed 5.5, gained 6.2 net yards per attempt but allowed 6.4, and gained 3.7 yards per carry but allowed 3.9. They have been inconsistent, and that inconsistency has shown most when facing other top offenses:
- Jaguars D vs. Mahomes/Stroud/Allen/Purdy: 1-3 straight-up (SU), 1-3 against the spread (ATS), -13.5 point differential
- Jaguars D vs. Richardson/Ridder/Minshew/Carr/Pickett/Levis: 6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS +13.3 point differential
Per our Action Labs data, divisional road favorites covering at least 70% of the time are 47-77-3 (38%) ATS since 2005, failing to cover by an average of 2.2 points per game.
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QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gd2HXMx1IxA
Rams vs. Cardinals
The Cardinals have averaged -0.032 EPA/play since Kyler Murray returned, which is still below the Rams’ -0.025 mark even when including the game Brett Rypien started.
The Rams are getting a big boost from the return of Kyren Williams, who ranks first in the league in rushing success rate (60.8%). Williams had 20 carries for 158 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting between these teams back in Week 6.
The Rams not only have the better offense in this game but the better defense, as well. While the Rams have been a below-average unit on 23rd, the Cardinals are a dreadful 31st. Arizona also just lost linebacker Kyzir White (IR, biceps), who wore the play-calling green dot for the unit. The Rams rattled off 6.9 yards per play when these teams met in Week 6, a 26-9 victory for the Rams.
Historically, the Cardinals have not enjoyed a home-field advantage in these spots. Per our Action Labs data, the Cardinals are just 3-8 (27%) ATS in divisional home games that Murray has started, failing to cover by 7.5 points per game.
Pick: Rams ML (-135; Bet to -150)
Chiefs vs. Raiders
The market is still undervaluing both of these defenses. The Chiefs are fourth in defensive DVOA and the Raiders are 16th. Both units specialize in limiting explosive plays, with the Raiders allowing the fifth-lowest rate of explosives (8.5%) and the Chiefs allowing the seventh-lowest (8.7%).
Seven of the 10 Chiefs games have finished with a total of 43 or below, and nine of the 10 Raiders games have finished with a total of 43 or below. Six straight Chiefs games and four straight Raiders games have hit the under. Per our Action Labs data, the under is 47-28-1 (63%) since 2003 when both teams entered with under streaks of three games or more.
Pick: Under 43.5 (-110)
Bills vs. Eagles
To get to 9-1 like the Eagles, a team has to be both lucky and good, but the underlying metrics say the 6-5 Bills have been just as good as the Eagles.
- DVOA: Bills 5th, Eagles 10th
- Offensive DVOA: Bills 3rd, Eagles 6th
- Defensive DVOA: Bills 15th, Eagles 17th
The difference has been luck: The Eagles are the second-luckiest team in our Luck Rankings, while the Bills are the second-unluckiest. Just in the last two weeks, the Eagles were lucky to escape with wins over Dallas (28-23) and Kansas City (21-17), getting out-gained by 106 and 91 but benefitting from fortuitous late-game luck.
The Bills match up well with the Eagles, whose defense has been elite against the run (fifth in DVOA) – which to the dismay of Sean McDermott is simply not a major part of Buffalo’s offensive attack – but shaky against the pass (19th), which doesn’t bode well when facing Josh Allen, who just posted the first three-touchdown game against the Jets pass defense since Week 2 of 2022.
Defensively, the Bills have plugged their holes on run defense over the past five weeks, with their 33.0% rushing success rate allowed since Week 7 ranking fourth in the NFL, just one spot behind the Eagles (32.9%).
The Bills’ cover against the Jets last week was just their first cover in their last seven games. Per our Action Labs data, non-division dogs with one or fewer ATS wins in their last seven games are 76-50-3 (60%) ATS since 2004.
