NFL Championship Sunday may be the best Sunday in football. Where else do you get the NFL's version of the Final Four, the best of the best battling it out on the verge of the Super Bowl?
In the NFC, it's a divisional rematch between the Eagles and the surprising Commanders. Rookie Jayden Daniels is the story, but the health of opposing QB Jalen Hurts could be even bigger.
The AFC needs no special introduction, as Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen renew one of the league's best rivalries once again with everything on the line.
These games practically hype themselves. Let's dive into the analysis of each game, look at why I'm backing both favorites to win and cover, and then hit the usual player props and escalators.
NFL Predictions: Conference Championship Picks
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Commanders vs. Eagles
Commanders vs Eagles Preview
This is a tricky game to cap because of the knee injury Jalen Hurts suffered in the Divisional Round against the Rams. Hurts is practicing and fully expected to play, but it remains to be seen how limited he may be on game day.
The expectation is that Hurts should be mostly fine as a passer and straight-line runner but more limited when trying to move in the pocket or escape pressure, which is already not a strength. That may mean fewer designed runs for Hurts — perhaps fewer Tush Push sneaks — and a more run-heavy game script with Saquon Barkley, whose rushing total prop line expectation is approaching an absurd 130 yards.
There's always the risk of re-injury with Hurts, which could mean Kenny Pickett or Tanner McKee, something we already saw in the last game against the Commanders.
Still, this line is too conservative for Philadelphia and an overreaction to Washington's big win. I make the Eagles closer to eight-point favorites with a healthy Hurts, so this is a big flip across the key number.
Philadelphia has already shown it can handle Washington on both sides of the ball, dominating the Commanders in seven of eight quarters thus far.
In the first game, the Eagles coasted to a 26-10 lead before a garbage-time touchdown in the final minute made the score look closer. In the rematch, Philly jumped out to 21 points and over 100 yards from Saquon Barkley in the first quarter but saw Hurts injured early, lost multiple defenders in the secondary and saw its defense crater with 22 points allowed in the final quarter as Washington came back to win.
So did Jayden Daniels and Washington's offense find some answers in that final quarter? Or did an exhausted, outmanned Eagles defense just run out of gas?
I lean toward the latter. Philadelphia's defense is healthy and has dominated this matchup. The Eagles held Washington to just 149 yards and 10 points through three quarters in the first game, then 207 yards and 14 points through three quarters in the rematch. That's an average of 237 YPG and 16 PPG through three quarters — this veteran team will know how to close the door late with the Super Bowl on the line.
Washington's defense is by far the weakest unit in this game. The Commanders allowed 27.6 PPG to opposing offenses in the league's top half by DVOA, with at least 24 points allowed in seven of nine such matchups. That includes both Eagles games when Philly averaged just under 30 PPG.
The Commanders' run defense is a particular problem, bottom 10 by DVOA against a dominant Eagles offensive line and rushing attack. Expect another huge Barkley game, likely with some more explosive runs. Washington's secondary is also vulnerable against top receivers, so look for A.J. Brown to finally make his mark on the playoffs — I'll get back to that.
Philadelphia's defense has already shown it can handle Washington's offense this season, and Washington's defense is badly outmatched.
Commanders vs Eagles Spread Analysis
Eagles -6 (-105)
Both of these teams faced top-five easiest schedules this season, but Philly is 7-2 against teams that made the playoffs while Washington is just 3-4. The lone wins came in that late comeback over the Eagles, the D.C. Doink win over the Bucs two weeks ago, and then the huge win against a Lions defense made of mostly second- and third-string defenders.
Washington's offense is particularly untested.
The Commanders faced a top-12 defense by DVOA only five times. Washington went 1-4 in those games, averaging under 300 yards per game and just 16 PPG through three quarters — compared to 13-1 in all other games, with almost a full 100 YPG more.
Philadelphia should shut down Washington's running backs, and it held Terry McLaurin to just one catch for 10 yards in one of the matchups. That puts it all on Jayden Daniels' plate, and that's an awful lot to ask of a rookie quarterback on the road in a raucous environment against Vic Fangio's No. 1 defense.
Just about no one believed in the Commanders a week ago, with a huge amount of bets and money on Detroit. Now it feels like everyone's going in the other direction — perhaps a week too late.
Sorry, but these are not the Lions' backups.
Daniels is the sixth rookie quarterback to start in a Conference Championship game. None of them reached the Super Bowl.
In division rematches in the Conference Championship, favorites are a perfect 4-0 over the last two decades, winning by almost a touchdown and going 3-1 ATS, the one that failed to cover by half a point.
It's tough to be too confident betting on the Eagles when the opponent has the better — and healthier — quarterback, but Philadelphia is better up and down the roster at virtually everything else.
Give me Eagles -6 — but for only half a unit, given the Hurts injury unknowns. I prefer to attack this game with player props.
Picks: Eagles -6 (-105; ESPN BET)
Commanders vs Eagles Prop Picks
Terry McLaurin Anytime TD (+135)
Philadelphia allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, so it'll be on Jayden Daniels to produce for Washington.
As good as the Eagles defense has been all season, Philadelphia ranks in the bottom 10 by DVOA against opposing WR1s. I count 14 Eagles games this season against what would be considered true WR1s. Seven of those 14 caught at least one touchdown, exactly half of them.
McLaurin got totally shut down in one Eagles game but scored in the other. He's caught 15 touchdowns this season, including the playoffs, with nine TDs in the last eight games. McLaurin has found the end zone in seven of the last eight games.
I'm not convinced Washington scores a ton in this game, but McLaurin looks like the most likely Commanders scorer. He's clearly the guy Daniels trusts most, making him a bargain at +140 to score an Anytime Touchdown.
Pick: Terry McLaurin Anytime TD +135 (FanDuel)
A.J. Brown Anytime TD (+160)
McLaurin isn't the only WR1 I'm looking to back in this one.
It's been a quiet start to the playoffs for A.J. Brown with just three catches for 14 yards in two games — but this is a great spot for him to break out.
Washington ranked in the bottom 10 against opposing WR1s, and it's been ugly even after trading for Marshon Lattimore. Look at some of the lines star receivers have hung on the Commanders this season: Malik Nabers went off for 10/127, Ja'Marr Chase had 6/118 and two scores, and Amon-Ra St. Brown had 8/137 last week.
Brown also had a season-high 15 targets against Washington this season, catching a season-high eight passes for 97 yards in one game.
Washington faced 14 true WR1s this season, and those players averaged seven catches on 10 targets for 90 yards per game, scoring nine TDs in 14 games. Every single one of them saw at least six targets, with half hitting double digits. All but one had five catches, with over half getting seven receptions, and all but one had at least 59 yards receiving, with over half hitting 90 yards.
Washington ranked top seven this season in both man coverage and single-high. Brown was the No. 1-graded receiver against man this season at PFF, and he was No. 2 in yards per route run against single-high.
Brown overs are my favorite way to attack this game. I project him with at least 8-to-12 targets for 6-to-8 receptions and 70-to-110 yards, with a minimum of at least 5/60 as a receiver.
That makes over 4.5 receptions look good, and he's done that in 10 of 15 games, but Brown isn't a volume guy with only two games over six catches. If Brown does get five catches, he's had at least 65 yards in all 10 such games this season, so I like attacking yardage more. Even if the volume isn't there, one or two big plays can get us there.
It's time for an escalator.
Start with over 60.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365), a number Brown's hit in all 10 games this season with at least five catches. Then take the escalator to 90+ yards at +300 (bet365). Brown had at least 89 yards in seven of his 15 games this season, just under half of them.
Brown's touchdown odds are also too high at +160 (BetMGM). He's scored in seven of 15 games, including all four with at least six catches, so that number is too long. It's also worth a touch on 8+ receptions at +850 (bet365) in case the volume is there since Washington allowed at least that many catches six times to WR1s this season — including once to Brown.
If you like the Eagles to win with a big Brown game, you might consider investing in futures. Brown is +450 to record 200+ yards in the playoffs and +1300 to hit at least 250 yards (DraftKings). I like a nibble on that higher number in hopes of a huge game against a beatable Washington secondary.
Picks: A.J. Brown over 60.5 receiving yards (-110; bet365) | 90+ yards (+300; bet365) | Anytime TD +160 (BetMGM) | 8+ receptions (bet365) | 250+ receiving yards in playoffs (+1300; DraftKings)
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Bills vs. Chiefs
Bills vs Chiefs Preview
For my money, this is the best matchup in football. This is the annual Cowboys vs. 49ers matchup from the 90s, or Manning vs. Brady if you prefer something more recent.
Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are, for me, the two best quarterbacks in football in a tier all their own — and if we're being honest, Allen has been the better QB this season.
But we should also be honest that these aren't the best versions of either of these teams we've seen in the playoffs. The Chiefs defense has been up and down, the Bills defense has been lackluster, and neither offense has been particularly explosive.
The Chiefs defense looks mostly "up" at this point. Kansas City's defense ranked top five by DVOA over its final month of the season before resting in Week 18, including top five against the pass. Buffalo should be able to run on the Chiefs, but you don't beat Mahomes by running.
The Bills defense looks like the weakest unit on the field, especially if they can't force big plays and turnovers against a Chiefs offense that rarely makes mistakes in the biggest moments. Buffalo was a fringe top-10 defense against both the run and the pass down the stretch by DVOA, and many of the season-long numbers minus turnovers tell a grim story about a defense that struggles to get off the field.
The Chiefs may be able to run inside against a defense that's better against outside runs, but Kansas City's "run" game will likely consist of a huge diet of passes short and over the middle. Buffalo ranked in the bottom three in both areas by DVOA, and that area of the field is where Mahomes lives these days. He threw the second-highest rate of short passes among QBs, and the Chiefs ranked third in Success Rate on passes between the hashes, per SIS, while Buffalo ranked 31st defensively there.
Buffalo's defense allowed 29.3 PPG against offenses ranked in the top 12 this season. The Bills also played far better defense at home than on the road, and Buffalo's offense was the best in the league at home, so the road trip could come into play.
It's always splitting hairs when these teams meet in a big game, but Kansas City's passing game against Buffalo's soft, middle-of-the-field defense looks like the key mismatch — especially with the Bills staring at key injuries in pass defense to Christian Benford, Taron Johnson, Matt Milano and Taylor Rapp.
Bills vs Chiefs Spread Analysis
Chiefs -1.5 (-110) and Win Super Bowl (+240)
These teams have been talked about as top-tier title contenders for months now, but I've always had Buffalo just outside that top tier. My models actually make this game over a field goal in Kansas City's favor. The Chiefs are at home with the better defense, better coaching, better special teams, better blocking and receivers.
Kansas City is just better — and it has Mahomes.
Mahomes is 4-4 lifetime against Allen but 3-0 in the playoffs. Mahomes is 27-9-1 ATS in all games where he's anything worse than at least a 3.5-point favorite, including a perfect 7-0 both ATS and straight up in the playoffs. When it's close, it's usually a pretty good idea to back Mahomes.
One-seed favorites in Conference Championship Games are 20-5 SU since 2003, including a perfect 8-0 with at least an 11% better win rate, as the Chiefs have here.
I like Chiefs -1.5 (-110; Caesars) — a bet I already made on the Hot Read. I also recommended buying Chiefs Super Bowl futures at +240 — you can read my article for more there.
We can expect this game to go back and forth with Mahomes and Allen dueling. The Bills have actually led at some point in all eight matchups against Mahomes. In fact, both teams have led in seven of the eight matchups.
My favorite way to bet the Chiefs this game is +195 at DraftKings to win from behind. All four Mahomes wins against Allen have been of the come-from-behind variety, and you know that price won't be available live with the way books are terrified to let us bet on a trailing Mahomes.
We can probably expect late drama and a close game. Both teams have scored in the fourth quarter in seven of the eight Mahomes-Allen matchups, so I like Both Teams To Score Fourth Quarter at -200 (BetRivers).
I also like simply betting on a close game. This year's matchup was a two-point game until two minutes left when Allen ran over and through the Chiefs defense with a 26-yard TD run that I thought should've been the MVP clincher.
Before that, the last four Chiefs-Bills games ended with a final margin of three, three, four and six points (in overtime). Build an SGP of Bills +6.5 and Chiefs +6.5 at +118 (DraftKings) for either team to win by six or less.
I like the Chiefs, but I expect fireworks late and yet another Mahomes-Allen classic.
Picks: Chiefs -1.5 (-110; Caesars) | Chiefs to win the Super Bowl +240 (BetMGM)
Props: Chiefs to win from behind (+195; DraftKings) | Both teams to score in fourth quarter (-200; BetRivers) | SGP of Bills +6.5 & Chiefs +6.5 (+118; DraftKings)
Bills vs Chiefs Prop Picks
Josh Allen Anytime TD (+100), Rushing Yard Escalators
This matchup is so familiar that I've got a few go-to bets I always play in Chiefs-Bills games, and the first is one I typically play in any big Bills games: Josh Allen rushing escalators.
The Bills tend to save Allen's legs for their biggest games, and the numbers bear it out — more rushing attempts and yards consistently against top opponents, game after game, season after season. When everything is on the line, Allen is unleashed as a runner, and we already hit multiple Allen rushing escalators in the first Chiefs game.
In eight games against Mahomes and the Chiefs, Allen averaged 10.3 rushes for 56 yards, and his three best running games against Kansas City all came in the playoffs, where he averaged 76 YPG with at least 68 yards in all three. Allen did average a career-low 6.4 rushing attempts per game in the regular season but is right back to nine per game in the playoffs.
The Chiefs were among the top five in both rushing attempts and yards allowed to opposing QBs this season, and we saw C.J. Stroud attack this defense successfully on scrambles just last week.
Books have appropriately bumped Allen's rushing attempts line to 9.5, where it's not particularly playable, but we can use those presumed rushing attempts to project both yards and TDs.
I expect at least 8-to-12 rushes for 40-to-70 yards, so let's play Allen to go over 47.5 rushing yards (-110; bet365) and play a 70+ yards escalator at +320 (bet365) since he averages better than that in Chiefs playoff matchups.
If you like, you can also sprinkle Allen (DraftKings) to lead all players in rushing yards this weekend (+1600), though you'll need Saquon Barkley to be muted for that one to hit.
When Allen runs a lot, he also tends to find the end zone. In 16 games since the start of last season with at least eight rushing attempts, Allen has scored 22 rushing TDs, with at least one in 14 of the 16 games (88%). That's a remarkable hit rate and practically begs us to bet his Anytime TD at +100 (BetMGM).
Allen had multiple rushing TDs in seven of those 16 games with 8+ attempts — almost half of them — including two of four in the playoffs. Bet 2+ Anytime TDs at +700 (FanDuel) in case Allen matches what he did just last week, and you can sprinkle 3+ TDs at +4500 (FanDuel) for a lottery ticket.
I like Allen at +1200 to score 5+ rushing TDs this postseason (FanDuel). There's an outside chance he hits that in this game, and if the Bills make the Super Bowl, that's a really juicy ticket, so that makes this a nice way to hedge against our Chiefs position too.
Picks: Josh Allen over 47.5 rushing yards (-110; bet365) | 70+ yards (+320; bet365) | Anytime TD +100 (BetMGM) | 2+ TDs (+700; FanDuel) | 5+ rush TDs in playoffs (+1200; FanDuel)
Travis Kelce First Chiefs TD (+425)
The other guy I play in every Mahomes-Allen battle is Travis Kelce.
That was a bust earlier this season with just two catches for eight yards, but we already hit big on our Kelce legacy escalator last week, so let's run it back before books adjust further.
Kelce's playoff numbers are staggering. In the last five postseasons (including this one), Kelce sits at 120 catches for 1,388 yards and 14 TDs in 14 games, an average of 8.6 catches for 99 yards per game. He has at least one score in 11 of the 14, and he's at 19 TDs in 19 playoff games with Mahomes.
That includes at least one TD in 14 of 19 playoff games with Mahomes — a whopping 74% hit rate. That should theoretically price an Anytime TD around -300, but we're still getting plus money at +135 (FanDuel). That's an auto bet.
Kelce has scored Kansas City's first TD in five of the last eight playoff games (63%) and nearly did so again last week. That's a great bet at +425 (DraftKings), and so is Kelce to score the first Chiefs TD in a Kansas City win at +1200 (DraftKings).
Rather than bet on 2+ TDs or most playoff TDs, I prefer betting Kelce at +390 to record at least 3 TDs in the playoffs (FanDuel). He had one last week, so two against the Bills does it, or just one here and again in the Super Bowl. And remember — he averages one per game with Mahomes in the playoffs!
In eight games with Mahomes, Kelce averages 6.6 catches for 76 yards. Buffalo's defense is soft over the middle of the field by design, and we've seen Kelce do consistent damage there. In playoff games against the Bills, Kelce averages 8.7 catches for 96 yards.
The Bills defense, which ranks in the bottom three against both short passes and over the middle, has been torched by tight ends down the stretch. Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely combined to catch nine passes for 134 yards last week, and opposing tight ends averaged 74 YPG against Buffalo over the last six games.
Kelce has at least 75 receiving yards in five of eight Mahomes games against the Bills, including all three playoff games, and that should come as no surprise since Kelce has recorded at least 71 receiving yards during an incredible 14 consecutive playoff games.
I already bet Kelce to go over 65.5 receiving yards at open and I still like that at 67.5 (-114; FanDuel). You can pick the yardage escalator you like best; I prefer 90+ yards at +230 (FanDuel).
When it's the playoffs, we play Kelce props — especially against the Bills.
Picks: Travis Kelce Anytime TD (+135; FanDuel) | Kelce First Chiefs TD (+425; DraftKings | First Chiefs TD in KC win (+1200; DraftKings) | 3+ TDs in playoffs (+390; FanDuel) | Over 67.5 receiving yards (-114; FanDuel) | 90+ yards (+230; FanDuel)
Khalil Shakir Over 5.5 Receptions (+135); Reception Escalators
Kelce is Patrick Mahomes' go-to security blanket receiver, and it's becoming clear that Khalil Shakir is Josh Allen's version of that on third downs and in the biggest moments.
The Chiefs rank bottom 10 against WR1s by DVOA, and the defense has been vulnerable to volume against small, crisp route runners — guys like Tank Dell (6/78) and Jakobi Meyers (6/52 and 6/97). I counted seven Bills matchups this season against Shakir-type players, and all seven had at least seven targets and six catches, with an average line of 7/76 on 10 targets.
Shakir had a season-high 12 targets against the Chiefs in the first matchup this season, catching eight balls for 70 yards. He was also Buffalo's go-to receiver in the playoffs last year against Kansas City, catching seven of nine targets to lead the team, even when Stefon Diggs was still around.
Shakir also has at least six catches and 61 receiving yards in both playoff games. The yards aren't always there, nor the touchdowns, but the volume should be.
Some books offer a heavily-juiced 4.5 receptions line, but I much prefer over 5.5 receptions at +135 (bet365). I'll also play a portion of my Shakir bet on 7+ receptions at +260 (bet365). He's done that in four of his last 16 games, including twice against the Chiefs.
If you want the full Shakir escalator, you can play 8+ catches at +475 and 10+ receptions at +1500 (bet365).
Picks: Khalil Shakir over 5.5 receptions (+135; bet365) | 7+ catches (+260; bet365) | 10+ catches (+1500; bet365)
