With the playoffs right around the corner, our experts have revealed their NFL Week 18 predictions.
We have picks on five games, four of which have bets against the spread. We're also betting one moneyline. Two of the games we have bets on have playoff implications, and we're betting on the underdog to play the role of spoiler.
Let's get into our NFL predictions for the final week of the regular season.
NFL Week 18 Predictions
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Commanders vs. Cowboys
Cowboys +6.5 (-110)
Backing home underdogs of six or more points has turned a positive return on investments for three consecutive seasons. The Cowboys may have one more inspired performance in them to save Mike McCarthy's job, and I like their chances to stay within the number at home to close their season.
The formula has been pretty simple of late for Dallas: If Rico Dowdle and the Dallas running game are working, Cooper Rush tends to play well; in turn, the team wins or plays opponents closely. The Commanders are 26th in rush defense DVOA this season, and since week 10 they have given up 4.5 yards per rush.
Furthermore, the Washington defense has been losing the line of scrimmage. Over that same span, the Commanders are 31st in the league in yards before contact per rush, which has consistently allowed runners to get to the second level of their defense. This problem continued last week in their overtime win against Atlanta, as Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combined to average over 5.5 yards per attempt on the ground.
The Cowboys defense did not perform well last week in Philadelphia, but have otherwise played much better down the stretch. This is a unit just two weeks removed from leading the charge at home against a good Tampa Bay offense. They generated six pass break-ups, four sacks, and three forced fumbles against Baker Mayfield and company to get that win on Monday night football. They still have the ability to create game-changing plays.
I'd play Dallas down to +6.
Pick: Cowboys +6.5 (-110)
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Jaguars vs. Colts
Jaguars +5 (-110)
By Simon Hunter
I could not think of a better way to end the season than to back Mac Jones as a road underdog against Joe Flacco. Something about that just feels right.
This line feels like books still think we're back in Week 7 when the Colts had hope for their season. Indianapolis quit last week against the Giants, ending its playoff hopes in embarrassing fashion against one of the worst teams in the NFL. In the buildup to this game, there has been finger-pointing and drama throughout the organization.
Somehow, though, sportsbooks think that the Colts are 4.5 points better than the Jaguars on the field. I simply don't see it. This line should be a field goal, and it wouldn't shock me if that's where we are by kickoff.
The Colts have historically struggled against the Jaguars. Over the last 20 years, Indy is 15-26-2 against the spread when facing the Jags. Jacksonville is the Colts' least-profitable opponent in that span.
It hasn't been any better of late. The Colts are 2-7 ATS against the Jaguars since 2020 and 3-15-1 since 2015.
This season, this Jaguars team hasn't shown any quit. Jacksonville has won two of its last four games, and Mac Jones has actually been moving the ball pretty well. I expect he'll be able to do that this week, just as Drew Lock and the Giants did in Week 17.
I'm betting on Jacksonville to keep this game close and maybe even win it outright. Take the points in what might be our last-ever chance to fade Flacco as a favorite.
Pick: Jaguars +5 (-110)
Over 44.5 (-115)
By John LanFranca
The Colts have more than 900 yards of offense over the last two weeks, are coming off a game against the Giants in which they gave up 7.3 yards per play, and have played in four straight games in which the over has cashed. We are getting a little bit of a discount here with this total lined below the key number if 45 because Jacksonville has seen their games go under in four of their last five.
However, those five games for the Jaguars included two against a struggling Titans offense, one against the Raiders, and one 23-20 game played against an overrated Texans offense. The only offense that Jacksonville has faced recently that is even playing mediocre happens to be the Jets in Week 15, a game they gave up 32 points and 7.4 yards per play.
The Jaguars defense ranks as one of the two worst in DVOA both against the run and the pass this season. Not only do they rank 32nd in defensive DVOA, but they also have a schedule ranking of 32, meaning they have played the easiest slate of offenses this season. Their defense has been historically poor.
Mac Jones settled into the starting quarterback role in Week 13, and while his play will not blow you away, the metrics display a respectable showing from this passing game that should lead to points. Jones' adjusted completion percentage ranks 16th over the last five games, he is getting to his 1st read at the fourth highest rate in the league, and he has seven touchdowns to just five interceptions.
Against a Colts defense that has given up 30.1 points per game over their last seven games, Jones should once again put up solid numbers en route to another high-scoring affair. I'd only play this total up to 44.5.
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Bills vs. Patriots
Bills ML (-155)
Players and coaches don't tank. Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo has already said he's "never been a part of a team as a player or as a coach going into a game not wanting to win. That's not going to change today."
Front offices, on the other hand, certainly tank. A loss here would guarantee the No. 1 pick for New England. Since the team seems to already have a viable quarterback in Drake Maye, they'll be able to deal the top pick for a hefty price to a quarterback-needy team. A win here would be extremely unwise for the future of the franchise.
Maye is expected to start this game, despite dealing with a hand injury. He also missed time in Week 17 with what appeared to be a head injury. I'd be surprised if he plays all four quarters here, though, so we could see Jacoby Brissett at any time.
The key for this one is Bills backups can win this game outright. Even without any tanking shenanigans, Mitch Trubisky and company are more talented than this Patriots group. New England is on a six-game losing streak and has a minus-75 point differential in that stretch. The Patriots' defense is 30th in EPA/play this season and the offense is 28th. Since Maye took over, they're only up to 23rd. There's a reason this team is in line to secure the top pick.
I'm already looking forward to the "Does Mitch Trubisky deserve a starting job?" news stories after he throws three touchdowns to Mack Hollins here.
Pick: Bills ML (-155)
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Panthers vs. Falcons
