Hours before Round 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft, multiple league insiders reported that reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers does not want to return to the Green Bay Packers.
The buzz immediately shifted Super Bowl 56 odds, which have otherwise remained mostly stagnant since opening in February.
The connection between teams that experienced movement and the Rodgers' rumor mill is clear: The San Francisco 49ers, Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders are reportedly on his wishlist of trade destinations. And those where three of the four teams that saw their Super Bowl futures shift overnight. The fourth was the Packers' division foe — the Minnesota Vikings.
Books adjusted even more after former Bronco Mark Schlereth said on local Denver radio that Rodgers to Denver was "as close to a done deal as it can get." Denver moved from 33-1 down to 20-1 after opening the day at 60-1.
Below you can compare those four teams' Super Bowl odds as of Wednesday night to their odds as of Thursday after the Rodgers news broke.
Super Bowl Odds After Aaron Rodgers Trade Rumors
| Team | Odds Before | Odds After |
|---|---|---|
| 49ers | +1600 | +1200 |
| Vikings | +4000 | +3300 |
| Broncos | +6000 | +3300 |
| Raiders | +6000 | +4000 |
Since no other news broke between when we recorded the "before" odds and when we checked them following the Rodgers news, there is no other explanation for the movement — especially since only teams with clear ties to the news and/or the Packers were impacted.
Even the potential of a Rodgers' trade moving Super Bowl odds makes some sense: Rodgers is coming off an MVP campaign in which he led the Packers to a 13-3 regular-season record and the NFC's No. 1 playoff seed before falling short of the Super Bowl in a conference championship loss to the eventual champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
