Monday featured plenty of fascinating matches on the clay of Parma, and the action continues Tuesday!
I’ve found two matches on Tuesday's order of play with value that we can exploit.
Read below for my analysis and predictions.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Erika Andreeva (-136) vs. Dalma Galfi (+112)
4 a.m. ET
Erika Andreeva comfortably defeated Rebeka Masarova 6-2, 6-2 to qualify for the main draw of Parma. Andreeva won 73% of her first-serve points and was only broken twice all match. She also won 57% of her return points and broke Masarova's serve on six occasions. If we include Andreeva's first-round qualifying victory over Federica Di Sarra, Andreeva won 59% of her return points and broke 11 times in qualifying.
Andreeva, as she showcased against Masarova, absorbs power well and does not get pushed around the baseline easily. Andreeva is consistent around the court, moves well and places her shots into pinpoint locations. And it's been effective this season with the 18-year-old Russian 26-12 on clay and 41-18 overall on the year.
Dalma Galfi has struggled recently, falling 6-7(5), 6-7(3) to Emma Navarro in the opening round of Budapest last week. Galfi won only 49% of her service points and was broken six times in two sets. However, she was able to break Navarro's serve six times, as well, though it ultimately wasn't enough to win.
Galfi is 11-12 on clay for the season and has lost four of her past five matches on the surface. Galfi has a big, heavy forehand that she uses to dictate play and put her opponents on the defensive. But the Hungarian's backhand is mediocre, her rally tolerance isn't great, and she's not the best mover.
Andreeva is a rising star with a complete game. She has better movement than Galfi and a higher rally tolerance. In longer rallies, Andreeva will be able to outlast Galfi from the baseline. Andreeva, given her placement, will also be able to keep the ball onto Galfi's backhand.
Andreeva also does a great job absorbing power and will neutralize Galfi's forehand when the Hungarian is able to hit out from that wing. Galfi will have to increase her risk to hit through Andreeva, and the Russian will force her to overhit from the baseline.
Pick: Andreeva ML (-136 via FanDuel)
Sara Sorribes Tormo (-165) vs. Martina Trevisan(+128)
1:05 p.m. ET
Sara Sorribes Tormo has lost four of her last five matches, most recently falling 3-6, 4-6 to Viktoria Kuzmova at the US Open. Sorribes Tormo won only 51% of her first serves and 37% of her second serves in that match, with Kuzmova overpowering her on the quick US Open courts. However, the clay of Parma represents totally different conditions that better suit Sorribes Tormo's game.
Sorribes Tormo is 12-5 in 2022 on clay and 222-111 in her career on the surface. Sorribes Tormo's fitness and consistency are excellent, and she counterpunches at a very high level. Sorribes Tormo can get exposed, though, against attacking players when she doesn't get good depth on her groundstrokes.
Martina Trevisan will be happy to return to clay after she recently lost 1-6, 4-6 on the hard courts of Portoroz. Trevisan won only 35% of her service points in that match and was broken eight times in nine service games. While Trevisan did break four times on return, she was outmatched from the baseline, with Siniakova overpowering her.
Trevisan is a much better clay courter, with a 15-6 clay record on the year, including reaching the semifinals of Roland Garros. Trevisan's game is built around her heavy lefty forehand, which the Italian utilizes to control the baseline. However, Trevisan's backhand is very shaky, and she cannot easily hit through opposition from the baseline.
Sorribes Tormo has the more solid game of the two players. The Spaniard will use her foot speed to keep points alive until she is able to pin Trevisan in her backhand corner, and she should be able to extract errors from that wing.
Sorribes Tormo struggles against players with power who can hit through her from the baseline, and Trevisan does not have the power to do so consistently. Trevisan will not pull Sorribes Tormo out of her comfort zone and will allow the Spaniard to grind her down.
Pick: Sorribes Tormo -2.5 Games (-115 via PointsBet)
