Maple Leafs vs Stars Odds
| Maple Leafs Odds | +102 |
| Stars Odds | -122 |
| Over / Under | 6 -115 / -105 |
In one of the best matchups on Thursday's 11-game NHL slate, the Dallas Stars host the Toronto Maple Leafs in a battle between two Cup hopefuls.
Low-scoring affairs are typically in-store when these two clubs square off. There have been five or fewer total goals scored in four of their past five meetings.
Will we see another low-scoring game on Thursday night (8 p.m. ET, ESPN+), or can the goals pick up this time around?
Here's a look at the Maple Leafs vs Stars odds for Thursday, as well as my betting pick and prediction.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Goaltender Ilya Samsonov is expected to take the crease for Toronto. He got chased immediately in his last start against the Tampa Bay Lightning, surrendering three goals on four shots before getting pulled.
I expect a bounce-back performance from Samsonov, a goaltender who is much better than his early-season .831 SV% suggests.
Last season, he ranked fourth among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5 on 5.
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That ranking sandwiched Samsonov between Ilya Sorokin and Igor Shesterkin, which is great company to be alongside.
There is always a concern with taking the Under in a game that the Leafs are playing in, and for good reason. They are traditionally very strong offensively while poor at the back end, which is a trend that has continued into the early parts of this season.
With that said, there have still been five or fewer total goals scored in three of their past four games.
Dallas Stars
Dallas features the opposite build in terms of team production (sort of). The Stars' blue line is excellent in their own zone, and the forward group features a ton of talented two-way guys.
That is not to say that the offense isn't good – it is – but what makes Dallas a Cup contender is its ability to play in all three zones rather than relying on a goal-heavy offensive group.
At 5 on 5, the Stars rank sixth in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) but 19th in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60).
Backing up this strong two-way team is goaltender Jake Oettinger, who continues to prove that he will likely collect a few Vezina trophies over the next 10-15 years. Through four starts to open this campaign, Oettinger is 3-0-1 with a .952 SV% and 1.44 GAA.
There were five or fewer total goals scored in all four of those outings.
Maple Leafs vs. Stars
Betting Pick & Prediction
Toronto's offense certainly causes some pauses when taking the Under, but I believe this Dallas blue line and Oettinger are up to the task.
Through two career starts against Toronto, Oettinger owns a .910 SV% and 3.07 GAA.
There were four or fewer total goals scored in each of those games.
Meanwhile, Samsonov is going to come into this matchup with a bit of extra fire after that terrible start against the Bolts. He's better than he's been playing, and I suspect he will turn things around sooner rather than later.
Betfred has the Under available at market-best +100 odds as of this writing. You can also get -105 at DraftKings or Caesars. Take the bet down to -110.
Pick: Under 6 (+100 | Play up to -110)
