Predators vs. Maple Leafs Prediction
| Predators Odds | +140 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | -166 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -130 / +105 |
Ryan O'Reilly returns to Toronto for the first time since choosing not to re-sign with the Leafs over the offseason. He and the Predators have overachieved expectations in the early going and a recent 8-2-0 run has Nashville holding the final Western wild-card spot.
Considering all of the negativity surrounding the team, the Leafs being 13-6-4 seems pretty reasonable. However, they have won only six of those games in regulation and will now be forced to tread water without top goaltender Joseph Woll.
Check out my Predators vs. Maple Leafs prediction below.
Nashville Predators
Andrew Brunette deserves a lot of credit for being a high-quality NHL coach. Brunette led the Florida Panthers to a Presidents' Trophy in 2021-22, but was let go after a second-round loss that was viewed as highly disappointing. Last season, he was an assistant with the overachieving Devils, who earned 112 points.
That made him an appealing target for new GM Barry Trotz to hire this year and so far, the move has worked out tremendously.
The Predators are in the midst of what is supposed to be a transitional period. Preseason expectations were quite low, but that take has been entirely wrong thus far.
Not only is the 14-12-0 record a surprise, but the underlying numbers are also quite strong. Nashville owns a fourth-best 53.93% expected goals rating across all strengths this season. If we cut the sample to the past 10 games, that mark remains nearly identical — 53.88%.
Brunette is well known for having a great understanding of the offensive details of the game. It's likely that strength is helping the Predators' middling roster overachieve offensively, as they have generated 3.69 xGF/60 this season. Typically, coaches hold a large influence over the power play, and the Predators have found success at a 21.2% clip.
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Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto's recent play hasn't been as strong as a 7-1-2 record might suggest. It has played to an expected goals share of 51.88% in those matchups, and the eye test would agree that several of those victories came with some favorable luck. The Leafs own a true goal differential of +3 both over that span and on the season.
Woll is one of the biggest reasons why the Leafs have outperformed their expected results. He owns a +7.4 GSAx and a .916 save % in 15 games. He was excellent again Thursday against the Senators before suffering what is reportedly a significant leg injury.
That likely means Ilya Samsonov gets the start in this game, although he is listed as day-to-day with an injury. Samsonov has struggled to a -4.8 GSAx and a .878 save percentage in 10 appearances this season.
Predators vs. Maple Leafs
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Leafs modest overall process is being overrated by their strong 13-6-4 record. They have only six regulation victories and are essentially playing 50/50 games with most opponents.
Excellent goaltending from Woll has been a key factor in Toronto's solid record, but with Woll injured, the Predators have a goaltending edge.
The Predators clearly hold betting value in this matchup and anything better than +135 is a play for me.
Pick: Nashville Predators Moneyline +152 (FanDuel) | Play to +135
