Sabres vs. Capitals Odds
| Sabres Odds | +104 |
| Capitals Odds | -125 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -102 / -120 |
Here's everything you need to know about Sabres vs. Capitals on Wednesday, Nov. 22 — our expert NHL preview and prediction.
The Sabres were a trendy pick to finally return to the playoffs this offseason, but they have disappointed in the early going with a record of just 8-9-1.
That mark puts them well below the Capitals, who have gotten off to a surprisingly dominant 9-4-2 start, in the standings.
Nobody would have priced the Sabres as an underdog against the Capitals two months ago, but these teams' current form combined with the absence of superstar Tage Thompson has the Sabres as +110 underdogs Wednesday.
Here's my Sabres vs. Capitals pick and prediction tonight.
Buffalo Sabres
Even sitting only one game below .500, the Sabres' playoff odds have trended well below 35% per most models ahead of Thanksgiving.
Oddsmakers offer a similar sentiment and price them at around -300 to miss the postseason.
The Sabres finished last season in excellent form under coach Don Granato, and they came up only one point short of a postseason berth. In the final 15 games last year, they owned a 51.56 xGF% and illustrated a well-rounded team game.
All of the team's most important skaters are entering their true primes as well, which seemingly gave the Sabres a high-upside roster.
The start to the 2023-24 campaign is a clear disappointment for the Sabres, though, even if losing their best player is somewhat of an excuse.
The Sabres have had an abnormally tough schedule, though, which has surely made things look worse than they are.
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In the last 11 games, Buffalo has played the Devils, Avalanche, Flyers, Leafs, Hurricanes, Wild, Bruins, Jets and Blackhawks. Considering even Philly has been dominant and that New Jersey was healthy at the time, that schedule basically offers two should-be wins in the Blackhawks and Wild, and the Sabres did win both those games.
It's still early in the year, and Buffalo has not been entirely awful. A perfect storm in terms of a tough schedule, close losses and an easy excuse with the Thompson loss have people viewing them as a full-on lottery team.
There is enough talent on the roster to turn things around even without Thompson in the mix, though, and the Sabres should be able to play at closer to a playoff-winning percentage the rest of the way.
Dylan Cozens should be able to step up and play effectively on the top line despite a relatively slow start. J.J. Peterka has been one of the most impressive young wingers in the game this year, which has been lost in Buffalo's disappointing start. He, Casey Mittelstadt and Zach Benson provide a quality second line that provides meaningful offensive upside.
Devon Levi will likely start in goal for Buffalo on Wednesday. The highly touted rookie owns a +0.1 GSAx and .880 save % in seven appearances this season.
Washington Capitals
The early season story for the Capitals is essentially the exact opposite of the Sabres.
They have overachieved expectations with a 9-4-2 record, and they have found a way to achieve the absolute maximum amounts of points based on how their games have actually been played.
In the last 10 games, the Capitals have put up a 49.58% expected goals share, but they have found a way to go 8-1-1 in that span.
The eye test would tell you they were not deserving winners in either of their last two games with Columbus or Vegas in particular, but incredible goaltending performances combined with timely scoring handed them victories.
The Capitals own a -1 goal differential overall, which is essentially where the underlying results suggest they should be.
Backup goaltender Charlie Lindgren owns a +8.9 GSAx and .940 save % in five appearances. His outstanding play stole the Capitals' wins in Columbus and from Vegas in particular.
The eye test and underlying results agree that the Capitals' sixth-best 2.67 goals against average is set to rise.
Darcy Kuemper will likely get this start for the Caps. He has played to a +0.5 GSAx and .892 save % in eight games played this season.
Sabres vs. Capitals
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Capitals' dominant record comes with roughly breakeven control of play, and they are due to allow more goals against.
The Caps have surely shown better than the disappointing Sabres thus far, but Buffalo's roster holds more upside moving forward. They should start to perform against more manageable competition.
The fact that Washington has won every 50/50 game does not change that these rosters still project quite evenly and that Buffalo should hold its share of the play tonight.
This sets up as the right time to sell high on the Capitals and buy low on the Sabres. Six weeks ago everybody in the hockey world would have thought +110 was an excellent number to bet the Sabres over the Capitals, even without Tage Thompson.
The Capitals' start means they deserve to move up in the power ratings, but not this much. I view this matchup as closer to a pick'em, and any price better than +100 is a play on the Sabres.
Pick: Buffalo Sabres (+110 at Caesars) | Play to +100
