Wild vs Flyers Odds
| Wild Odds | -120 |
| Flyers Odds | +100 |
| Over / Under | 6 -115 / -105 |
The Wild and Flyers meet Thursday with each sporting a 3-2-1 record, but have arrived at those marks with wildly different styles of play. Minnesota has scored on 14% of shots taken, and still owns a breakeven goal differential. Philadelphia has locked it down defensively, yet had a tougher time finishing its chances.
Let's take a look at why the Flyers early play could lead to more sustainable results moving forward.
Minnesota Wild
Aside from superstar Kirill Kaprizov, Jared Spurgeon and Matt Boldy are the two most important skaters on the Wild's roster. As a result, the team should be thrilled to be sitting at 3-2-1 with both on the sidelines, and each will remain out for this contest.
The team's underlying process has not been entirely convincing. They own an xGF% of only 45.59 and have been exposed defensively in particular. They have allowing 4.16 goals against per game, and own a 27th ranked 3.61 xGA/60.
While they could be due for more saves from Filip Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury, their offensive play is even more likely to regress.
Minnesota has confirmed the better of its two starters will play Thursday as Filip Gustavsson will get the nod in the front leg of a back-to-back. Gustavsson has had a slow start to the campaign after a stellar 2022-23 season. He owns a -0.7 GSAx and .897 save % in four appearances.
Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia suffered a tough loss on the road in Vegas Tuesday, before traveling all the way back home for this matchup. That travel scenario makes this a less-than-ideal spot which is worth noting here. Aside from that, all indicators about the Flyers early play suggest they are an interesting bet as a home underdog.
Philadelphia owns the second-highest xGF% in the league at 58.96 through the season's first six games. The talent of the roster likely will not allow it to hold such a dominant mark moving forward, but there are several reasons why they are still skating a better lineup than a year ago.
The most important one is that Sean Couturier has returned from a lengthy absence at a high level. He has played like a true number one center, which moves the needle a significantly in the right direction. Bobby Brink has been excellent, and Tyson Foerster has also had a strong start to his NHL career.
Not only does the offensive core look more respectable, but the blue line could be somewhat improved as well. Aside from an awful gaffe late versus Vegas, Cam York has also shown quite well on the blue line. Having Rasmus Ristolainen injured is actually an addition-by-subtraction situation as well.
Carter Hart should be viewed as a top-ten goaltender, and his numbers could be significantly improved if his teams improved defensive play continues. He owns a +1.5 GSAx and .922 save % in five games this season and has been confirmed as tonight's starter.
Wild vs. Flyers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Generating high-quality chances against the Flyers this season has been a tall order. John Tortorella is coaching a much-improved roster and that has translated into elite defensive results. It's worth noting that has come against a tough slate of offensive opponents, too.
Minnesota has scored their way out of trouble on a few occasions thus far, but their overall process may not be sustainable with less clinical finishing. Playing without two elite play-drivers in Jared Spurgeon and Matt Boldy is a reasonable excuse for the lesser run of play, but that will not change for tonight's matchup.
The underlying results state the Flyers have played the sharper game to this point of these two teams. That does come in a tiny sample size, but the true talent of these rosters is close right now with Spurgeon and Boldy out of the equation as well.
And +105 is a good number to back the Flyers at home Thursday considering the form of these sides. Anything better than +100 is a play for me.
As outlined here in our anytime goalscorers preview for tonight, Bobby Brink is worthy of a sprinkle at +460 as well.
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